Another thick layer of smog engulfed many parts of Delhi and NCR during the morning hours of November 5th. The surface visibility dropped to 400 meters between 7:30 and 9:00 a.m. The Air quality index of many parts of Delhi reached in hazardous category. AQI of Wazirpur reached 626 and ITI Jahangirpuri was 611. Many other areas of Delhi and NCR were between 500 and 600. We can call it an emergency.
The wind speed is almost calm during the night. The speed of wind during afternoon hours is also just 3 to 5 kmph. Due to the low-temperature air near the earth's surface and due to high humidity, the pollutants mix with the water vapours resulting in the formation of mist and haze, forming a layer of smog. Due to the calm and light winds, the pollutants are not able to disperse and remain suspended near the earth's surface.
We do not expect wind speed to increase for at least the next 5 days therefore, the air pollution of Delhi and NCR will remain in the severe to hazardous category. The festival of Diwali is also on November 12. The increased wind speed during that time may disperse the pollutants and air pollution may decrease to some extent.
The 37th instalment of the ICC World Cup cricket match will be played between South Africa and India at Eden Garden cricket stadium in Kolkata at 2:00 p.m. on November 5th, i.e. today.
The weather may remain partly cloudy to cloudy, and temperatures will be hovering between 30 and 25 degrees. Humidity will increase after 8:00 p.m. and there are chances of dew over the pitch and the ground during the second half of the match.
We do not expect rain during the match which means that no disruption is expected in terms of rain in the city of Kolkata. Light winds will continue from the north.
Most of the regions in the South Peninsula remained rain-deficient in the month of October. Now, the Northeast monsoon has become active. Tamil Nadu and Kerala have received widespread and thundershower activities during the last 24 hours with few heavy spells.
A trough is persisting in low-level over Southwest and West central Bay of Bengal near the Tamil Nadu coast. Moreover, the northeast Delhi winds are also strong. We expect intense rain and thundershower activities to continue over Tamil Nadu Kerala south Karnataka and the South coast of Andhra Pradesh for at least the next 4 to 5 days.
There may be water logging in low-lying areas over parts of interior Tamil Nadu and Kerala. These rains will be highly beneficial for rain-deficient states of the South Peninsula. Water reservoirs will receive enough water. Until now Telangana has not received any significant weather activity. To we expect rain activities to commence over the southern district of Telangana from November 6. Rain may gradually spread over central parts of Telangana as well.
Model-based probabilistic ENSO forecast is extending right up to Monsoon 2024. However, it is rather early to preempt any inference and offer comments about the next southwest monsoon season. However, there is conclusive evidence that El Nino is going to wither during the winters of the Northern Hemisphere. All three components of ENSO: El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina will get manifested with some floating configuration to start with. It will take time for the entire pattern to get stabilized and possibly Jan-Feb projection may be reliable enough to read the next season.
ENSO: Climatologically, the sea surface temperature anomalies have reversed from January 2023 to October 2023, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Starting in Feb 2023, with the cessation of La Nina, SSTs transitioned from below-average to above-average. During the monsoon months, the positive anomalies expanded westward from the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, the positive anomalies have weakened slightly in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Of late, SST anomalies have increased near the International Date Line.
The entire Nino region remains well above the threshold mark of +0.5°C. Nino 3.4 seems to be plateauing around 1.6°C. It has been hovering around this value for the last about 10 weeks.
IOD: The Indian Ocean Dipole index for the week ending 29 Oct 2023 was +1.36°C. There is a significant drop from its earlier mark of 1.92°C on 16 Oct 2023 and 1.79°C on 23 Oct 2023. The index value has started dropping a bit earlier than the model projection of post-Nov 2023. But then, this much of error is quite understandable and falls within the permissible limits.
IOD event usually starts around May, peak between Aug and Oct and then rapidly decay during the fall of the year. As such, the dipole pattern is unable to persist once the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts to the Southern Hemisphere. Strong positive IOD during the later half of the southwest monsoon was responsible for late retreat from northern and eastern parts. It has a cascading effect resulting delay in shifting the monsoon trough to the southern hemisphere.
MJO: Madden-Julian Oscillation is a lesser-known entity as compared to ENSO and IOD. However, it can trigger some extreme events. Unlike ENSO & IOD, which are stationary patterns, MJO is an eastward moving pulse of clouds, rainfall, winds and pressure, that traverses in the tropics with a cycle of 30-60 days. So, there can be multiple MJO events within a season. It is the largest phenomenon causing intra-seasonal tropical climate variability.
The MJO is currently weak. There are competing influences of ongoing El Nino, as well as active IOD. Dynamical model outcomes differ and therefore good deal of uncertainty on its positioning and amplitude. Broadly, it is going to remain in the Western Hemisphere with varying amplitude.
At longer leads, the skill of the models degrades. The variability of the set of initial conditions and the physics parameterization coupled with uncertainties of skills may impact model estimates. Therefore, caution is advised to cater for the errors in interpreting and utilization of forecast distributions. Human judgements in combination with the model guidance offer the best bet.
दिल्ली और एनसीआर का वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक लगातार गंभीर श्रेणी में बना हुआ है. पिछले हफ्ते से दिल्ली में प्रदूषण के स्तर में धीरे-धीरे बढ़ोतरी हो रही है। हवा की गति बहुत हल्की है. यह 3 से 5 किमी प्रति घंटे के बीच है, इसके अलावा, रात और सुबह के समय हवा शांत हो जाती है।
मानसून की वापसी के बाद, दिल्ली और एनसीआर सहित उत्तर पश्चिम भारत में मौसम आमतौर पर शुष्क हो जाता है। पश्चिमी विक्षोभ एकमात्र मौसम प्रणाली है जो सर्दियों के दौरान उत्तरी मैदानी इलाकों में बारिश की गतिविधियाँ देती है।
इस साल, हमने अक्टूबर के महीने में उत्तर पश्चिम भारत के मैदानी इलाकों में कोई महत्वपूर्ण बारिश नहीं देखी है। धरती की ऊपरी परत पूरी तरह सूख चुकी है. ढीली धूल वायु प्रदूषण में योगदान दे रही है। दिल्ली और एनसीआर में वाहनों की संख्या बहुत ज्यादा है.
निर्माण स्थलों से निकलने वाली धूल के साथ-साथ वाहनों के आवागमन और उद्योगों का धुआं भी इसमें योगदान दे रहा है। यहाँ तापमान कम होने के कारण पृथ्वी की सतह के निकट सघन एवं भारी हो जाते हैं तथा मध्यम हवाओं के अभाव के कारण प्रदूषक तत्व बिखर नहीं पाते हैं।
प्रदूषकों में एक अन्य योगदानकर्ता पड़ोसी राज्यों पंजाब और हरियाणा में पराली जलाने से निकलने वाला धुआं है। मानसून की वापसी के बाद अधिकांश समय हवा की दिशा पश्चिम और उत्तर-पश्चिम की ओर रहती है। उत्तर पश्चिम दिशा से आने वाली हवाएं पराली जलाने का धुआं दिल्ली और एनसीआर की ओर ले जाती हैं। दूसरा कारक व्युत्क्रमण है। व्युत्क्रमण के दौरान तापमान ऊंचाई के साथ बढ़ने लगता है।
जब ऐसा होता है, तो पृथ्वी की सतह के पास की हवाएँ उसके ऊपर की हवाओं की तुलना में भारी हो जाती हैं। ये भारी हवाएँ पृथ्वी की सतह के पास ही रहती हैं और ऊपर नहीं उठतीं। प्रदूषक तत्व इन आर्द्र और भारी हवाओं के कारण पृथ्वी की सतह के पास फंस जाते हैं जिससे प्रदूषण में वृद्धि होती है।
लंबे समय तक किसी विशेष दिशा से आने वाली तेज़ हवाओं या बारिश से प्रदूषण को कम किया जा सकता है। दुर्भाग्य से, हमें अगले 3 से 4 दिनों के दौरान हवा की गति में वृद्धि होती नहीं दिख रही है। कम से कम एक सप्ताह तक बारिश की संभावना से भी इनकार किया गया है।
The air quality index of Delhi and NCR continues to remain in the severe category. There has been a gradual increase in pollution levels in Delhi since last week. Wind speed is very light. It is between 3 and 5 Kmph, moreover, during the night and early morning hours, the wind becomes calm.
After the withdrawal of monsoon, the weather usually goes dry over Northwest India including Delhi and NCR. Western disturbances are the only weather systems which give rain activities over the Northern Plains during winter.
This year, we have not seen any significant rain over the plains of Northwest India in the month of October. The upper layer of the earth has gone completely dry. Loose dust is contributing to air pollution. The number of vehicles in Delhi and NCR is very high.
The smoke of vehicular traffic and industries along with the dust from construction sites is also contributing. Due to the low temperature here near the earth's surface become dense and heavy and due to the absence of moderate winds, pollutants are not able to disperse.
Another contributor to the pollutants is the smoke from Stubble Burning in the neighbouring states of Punjab and Haryana. After the withdrawal of the monsoon, the wind direction most of the time remains from the west and Northwest. Winds from the Northwest direction carry the smoke of stubble burning towards Delhi and NCR. Another factor is inversion. During inversion, the temperature starts rising with height.
When this happens, the winds near the Earth's surface become heavier than the winds above them. These heavy winds remain near the earth's surface and do not rise. The pollutants are trapped by these humid and heavy winds near the earth's surface leading to an increase in pollution.
Pollution can be reduced by strong winds from a particular direction for a prolonged period or rainfall. Unfortunately, we do not see the wind speed increase during the next 3 to 4 days. Chances of rain are also ruled out for at least one week.
The 36th instalment of the ICC World Cup will be played between England and Australia at the Narendra Modi cricket stadium of Ahmedabad on November 4th at 2:00 p.m. Ahmedabad is expected to have clear weather with high maximums during the first 4 hours of the match.
The temperature will be 34 and 31 degrees. The weather will become comfortable after 7:00 p.m. And temperatures may also drop gradually. Light winds from the northeast direction will continue during the match.
Humidity levels will be on the lower side between 25 and 55%. We do not expect dew to fall over the ground or the pitch. The match will be completed with full overs without any obstruction weather wise.
The 35th instalment of the ICC World Cup will be played between Pakistan and New Zealand at Bengaluru today at 10:30 a.m. The match will start at 10:30 a.m. This match may see some weather disturbance and rains may play spoilsport.
Bengaluru has been receiving light rain for the last two days. Today also, we expect cloudy weather conditions with chances of intermittent rain. Therefore, we expect frequent interruptions during the match. This is a must win match for Pakistan to remain in the race for the semifinals.
Temperatures will remain pleasant at around 25 degrees at the time of commencement of the match. The temperature range will be between 25 and 27 degrees. Winds from the southeast or east direction at a speed of 10 to 15 Kmph will continue during the match.
At present, the Northeast Monsoon is active in the South Peninsula. Many parts of Karnataka including Bengaluru are expected to witness rain and thundershower activities for at least the next 3 to 4 days.
The city of Chennai has started to see some good rainfall activities during the past couple of days, all thanks to the active Northeast Monsoon conditions that have been going on.
Moreover, in the last 24 hours, Nungambakkam saw 23 mm of rain while Meenambakkam recorded 15 mm of rains. Today also, we can expect good rainfall activities over the city.
Similar rains are likely to continue for the next few days, between November 2 and 7, wherein moderate rains with isolated heavy spells might be seen. Thereafter, we can expect a short break. Rainfall is expected to pick up again after this short breather.
हाल ही में पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के परिणामस्वरूप उत्तर भारत की पहाड़ियों पर कुछ वर्षा हुई और ऊंचाई वाले इलाकों में कुछ बर्फबारी हुई। हालाँकि, यह इतना कमजोर था कि मैदानी इलाकों पर कोई प्रभाव नहीं डाल सका।
अब यह सिस्टम दूर जा रहा है और अगले कुछ दिनों तक पहाड़ों पर मौसम साफ रहने की उम्मीद है, जब तक कि कोई और सिस्टम पैदा न हो जाए, लेकिन इसके लिए थोड़ा इंतजार करना होगा।
7 नवंबर को एक सिस्टम पहाड़ों की ओर आ रहा है जो कुछ दिनों तक पश्चिमी हिमालय पर रहेगा। हालांकि मैदानी इलाकों पर इसका कोई असर नहीं पड़ेगा | 9 और 10 तारीख के आसपास, इसकी प्रेरित प्रणाली राजस्थान के कुछ हिस्सों में कुछ वर्षा की गतिविधियाँ दे सकती है। हालाँकि, इस सिस्टम के कारण उत्तर भारत की पहाड़ियों में कुछ अच्छी बारिश हो सकती है।
The recent western disturbance resulted in some rainfall activity over the hills of north India and caused some snowfall over the higher reaches. However, it was feeble enough to have not been able to have any effect over the plains.
Now the system is moving away and clear weather conditions are expected over the hills for the next few days until another one arises but for that, there is a little bit of a waiting period.
A system is approaching the hills on November 7 which will stay over the Western Himalayas for a few days. However, it will not have any effect on the plains. Around the 9th and 10th, its induced system might give some rainfall activities over some parts of Rajasthan. Hills of North India, however, may see some decent rains due to the system.
Pollution levels in Delhi have reached a peak wherein clear sky conditions seem long forgotten. Visibility has reduced, it is hard to see anything beyond a certain point and masks have come out to save oneself from breathing the highly toxic air. Morning walks for now seem like a distant dream as the air will negate the benefits. The national capital in spirit has come to a halt as residents continue to choke on hazardous air. All in all, it seems like the city is in a very sorry state of affairs at this point.
The air quality has reached the severe stage forcing the government to close schools for the next two days in Delhi and stopping all construction activities, unless extremely necessary.
The Air Quality Index of 500 has become the new normal with pollution hitting the severe mark and air quality reaching the hazardous stage. Out of the multiple factors causing it, even the weather is one.
The weather is such that it does not favour any dispersion of pollutants. For pollutants to wash away and the weather to become clearer, there has to be either of the two things. Either the wind needs to be strong enough to disperse the pollutants away or there has to be some rainfall to wash away the pollutants. The sad part is that as far as the weather forecast is concerned, we do not expect any of these to occur in the next few days.
The pollution level is as it is then worsening over the past few days and came to a stage today where visibility at Palam airport dropped to 500 metres in the morning.
We expect stable layers of atmosphere with light winds and the temperatures will remain within the normal levels. No change is likely in the prevailing meteorological conditions. All these conditions favour the persistence of the thick layer of pollution.
Moreover, even after the wake of a western disturbance today, there is likely to be no relief as the system was very feeble to have no significant effect on the wind pattern. A slight drop in minimums is expected, which is all the worse for the pollution levels as any reduction in night temperatures increases the thick pollution levels.
