Heavy rains have lashed the southern parts of the country wherein some regions have recorded the highest rains of the season.
During the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Monday, Punalur recorded 139 mm of rain, Tondi 96 mm, K Paramathy 67 mm, Dharmapuri 62 mm, Madurai 42 mm, Chitradurga 37 mm, Chintamani 36 mm and Mandya 20 mm.
There has been a Cyclonic Circulation over Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas, which have shifted, crossed the coast and gone to Lakshadweep. Trough remains along the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining areas.
Good rains are expected to continue over many parts of South India right from November 7 to 9. Around November 10th, rainfall spread will reduce. Around November 11th, only the extreme southern parts will see showers. Thereafter, complete clearance is expected from these areas.
Northeast monsoon has largely remained on the back foot this season. Monsoon made a silent start with absolutely mild current on 21stOctober. Conspicuously, it failed to gather momentum for sufficiently long, leaving enormous deficiency in the month of October. There is an uptick of weather activity for the last 4 days. However, typical outbursts of seasonal downpour, at least over coastal Tamil Nadu still go missing. Somewhat active monsoon conditions persisting over South Peninsula now, will go mute after about 3 days.
The onset criteria of northeast monsoon had some gaps this season. The onset announcement is made after ascertaining the requisite condition : Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon up to 15°N, onset of persistent surface easterlies over Tamil Nadu coast, Depth of easterlies up to a height of 5,000 feet over Tamil Nadu coast and most importantly fairly wide spread rainfall over coastal Tamil Nadu, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining area.
Climatological Northeast Monsoon date is 22ndOctober with standard deviation of 7 days. Most delayed onset was on 02ndNovember in 1988, 1992 and 2000. The mean duration of northeast monsoon is about 75 days. The smallest duration occurred in 1992 (51 days) and longest (98 days) in 2005. However, there is no statistical correlation of NE monsoon seasonal rainfall with either monsoon onset, withdrawal or duration.
An off shore cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal, in the proximity of Sri Lanka to start with and later shifting over Lakshadweep and Southeast Arabian Sea has triggered weather activity for the last about 3-4 days. An east-west trough from this system is still extending till North Tamil Nadu, cutting across interiors of Peninsular India. This weather system will keep the monsoon activity ‘on’ for another 3 days. The spread and intensity will substantially reduce on 10thNovember and get further limited to small areas on 11th Nov. This wet spell will marginally recover the huge deficit so far over the core meteorological sub divisions of northeast monsoon.
The 39th instalment of the ICC Cricket World Cup match will be played between Australia and Afghanistan at the Wankhede Cricket Stadium in Mumbai from 2:00 p.m. today, i.e. on November 7.
We do not expect any significant weather activity during the match and the match will be completed with full overs. The temperature range will be 34 and 30 degrees during the match. Humidity levels will also remain low between 45 and 50%.
Chances of dew over the ground are ruled out. Light winds from the west direction will continue. The weather may be a little warm and uneasy during the commencement of the match but will become gradually comfortable by 7:00 p.m.
A feeble Cyclonic Circulation is over Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas in the lower levels. As it is during these seasons, these systems travel from east to west. Following a similar track, it will roll over to the other side of the coast, over the Lakshadweep region and adjoining areas.
However, it does not have that much vigour and is not strong enough to cause any significant rainfall. Circulation may come up and a feeble low pressure may form over the region.
However, it may not sustain or intensify much. In the further subsequent 48 hours, it might fizzle out rather far away without any significant weather over the Indian coastline.
The state of Andhra Pradesh has seen some good rains, Both the subdivisions of Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh have seen good showers. Moreover, during the last 24 hours from 8:30 AM on Sunday, Kavali recorded 102 mm of rain, the first three-digit rain of the region, Tirupati saw 62 mm of rains, Ongole 48 mm, Tiruttani 34 mm, and Nellore 17 mm.
The state of Andhra Pradesh was the largest deficit pocket of Northeast Monsoon, at almost about 87 percent from October 1 to November 5. These rains may help reduce the deficiency to some extent.
Rainfall activity is expected to continue over the region for at least today and tomorrow. Rains will reduce from Coastal Andhra Pradesh by November 8 and Rayalaseema will see a reduction by November 9. After November 10, complete clearance is expected.
So far this season, there have been weak western disturbances that have affected the hills of north India. Rightly so, because stronger systems at this point in time are not expected to approach the hilly regions. As it is the month of November happens to be the least rainy month for North India.
Even if there are stronger systems, they are outliers as they do not happen to be a regular feature. They also mostly affect the mountains at this point.
A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to arrive on November 8. It will affect the hills on November 8. Starting November 9, its effect can be seen over the plains as well. Rains over the plains will not be widespread or intense but it will cover parts of Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana. Delhi comes on the fringes of the system but some light rain may be seen.
On November 10th, rains will recede from the plains but may confine to the foothills. Hills of north India including Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh as well as Uttarakhand will be seeing rains on the 10th as well. Final clearance will only be seen around November 11.
Higher reaches of the hills of north India may also see some light snowfall activity during this period. For now, the day temperatures may see a marginal drop and a marginal rise is likely in the minimum.
दिल्ली में आज सुबह इस सीज़न का सबसे कम न्यूनतम तापमान दर्ज किया गया। दिन के अधिकतम तापमान में ज्यादा बदलाव नहीं हुआ और सामान्य स्तर के आसपास 30 के आसपास रहा। अब तक वर्षा का कोई पता नहीं। सुबह के समय हल्की हवाओं, कम तापमान और उच्च आर्द्रता के साथ स्थिर परतों के प्रभाव में, दिल्ली अत्यधिक जहरीली हवा से जूझ रही है, जिसमें किसी भी तरह की कमी के तत्काल कोई संकेत नहीं हैं।
नवंबर का महीना लगभग 15-16 डिग्री सेल्सियस के न्यूनतम तापमान के साथ शुरू होता है और महीने के अंत में तापमान लगभग 10 डिग्री सेल्सियस तक गिर जाता है। नवंबर के शुरुआती दिनों में न्यूनतम तापमान सामान्य से लगभग 1-2 डिग्री सेल्सियस अधिक था। हालाँकि, आज सुबह न्यूनतम तापमान 13.5 डिग्री सेल्सियस तक गिर गया। यह सामान्य से करीब 2 डिग्री सेल्सियस कम है. साथ ही, यह सीज़न का सबसे कम और पहली बार 14°C से कम तापमान है। इससे पहले, तापमान 14.3 डिग्री सेल्सियस तक गिर गया था, जैसा कि 28 अक्टूबर 2023 को सफदरजंग वेधशाला में दर्ज किया गया था। इसके बाद, कल तक पारा 15 डिग्री सेल्सियस से ऊपर रहा, इससे पहले कि गिरावट आई और हवा में हल्की गिरावट आई।
पिछले करीब 20 दिनों से मौसम बिल्कुल शुष्क बना हुआ है। इस प्रकार, नवंबर सबसे कम बारिश वाला महीना है, जहां सामान्य वर्षा मात्र 4.1 मिमी है। कई बार तो बारिश की बूंदें देखे बिना ही महीना बीत जाता है। पिछले तीन वर्षों में कोई वर्षा दर्ज नहीं की गई और यहां तक कि 2011 और 2014 भी बिल्कुल सूखे रहे। हालाँकि, न्यूनतम तापमान सामान्य से काफी नीचे गिर रहा है और बार-बार एकल अंक तक गिर रहा है, हालांकि महीने की दूसरी छमाही के दौरान। पिछले साल, न्यूनतम तापमान लगातार एकल अंक में रहा और सबसे कम न्यूनतम तापमान 7.3 डिग्री सेल्सियस 29 नवंबर 2022 को दर्ज किया गया था। एक साल पहले, यानी नवंबर 2021, उतना ठंडा नहीं था और सबसे कम न्यूनतम तापमान 9.2 डिग्री सेल्सियस तक पहुंच गया था। फिर भी, महीने की दूसरी छमाही के दौरान एक से अधिक अवसरों पर न्यूनतम तापमान 10°C से कम हो गया।
पश्चिमी विक्षोभ 08 नवंबर को आने और 10 नवंबर तक रहने की संभावना है। पहले और आखिरी दिन मौसम की गतिविधियां पहाड़ों तक ही सीमित रहेंगी। मध्य और ऊंचाई वाले इलाकों में कुछ बारिश और बर्फबारी हो सकती है, जबकि निचली पहाड़ियों में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश होगी। इस बीच, 09 नवंबर को पंजाब, हरियाणा और उत्तरी राजस्थान के कुछ हिस्सों में हल्की बारिश होने की उम्मीद है। दिल्ली इस मौसम प्रणाली के बाहरी परिधि में आती है लेकिन फिर भी कुछ हल्की बारिश होने की संभावना बनी हुई है।
आंशिक रूप से बादल छाए रहने और हवा के पैटर्न में बदलाव के कारण अगले 3-4 दिनों में तापमान में और गिरावट की संभावना नहीं है। बल्कि, 09 और 10 नवंबर को न्यूनतम तापमान लगभग 16-17 डिग्री सेल्सियस तक बढ़ सकता है। सिस्टम के गुजरने के बाद, 12 से 14 नवंबर के बीच पारा का स्तर 13-14 डिग्री सेल्सियस तक गिर जाएगा। दिवाली पर हवा में थोड़ी ठंडक रहने की संभावना है, खासकर सुबह और देर रात के समय में।
City of Hyderabad has not rained for fairy long now. Conditions have become favourable to have light to moderate showers over the next 3-4 days. Deccan city has been observing comfortable weather conditions and will turn further pleasant during rest of this week.
Hyderabad rained last on 29thSeptember 2023. Though, the southwest monsoon completed withdrawal around mid October, but rains ceased much earlier than that. Month of October remained totally dry. It happened earlier in 2017 & 2018 as well. Though, city has a normal of about 114mm rainfall in October. November rains, as such become scanty and monthly average drops to 19.1mm.
A cyclonic circulation is marked over North Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood. This feature will shift over interiors of South Peninsula with a trough extending northward across Rayalaseema and Telangana. This is not a very strong system for this region but still good enough to have sporadic showers for the next few days.
Weather activity is likely in the evening and night hours. The capital and largest city of Telangana can expect decent showers between 06th and 09th November. Spread and intensity of rains may be little more on 07th and 08thNov, as compared to other days. Finally, jinx of dry weather will end soon and make way for pleasant weather conditions for the city and suburbs.
Delhi recorded this season’s lowest minimum temperature today morning. Day maximum temperatures did not vary much and stayed in low 30’s, around the normal mark. No trace of any precipitation so far. Under the influence of light winds, stable layers with low temperatures and high humidity in the morning hours, Delhi continue to battle with highly toxic air, with no immediate signs of any let up.
Month of November starts with a low of around 15-16°C and drops to nearly 10°C during fag end of the month. Minimum temperatures were about 1-2°C above the normal in the opening days of November. However, the minimum plunged to 13.5°C this morning. This is about 2°C below the normal. Also, this is season’s lowest and first time under 14°C. Earlier, the temperature had dipped to 14.3°C, as recorded at the Safdarjung observatory, on 28 Oct 2023. Thereafter, mercury stayed above 15°C, till yesterday, before taking a dip and adding slight nip in the air.
Weather conditions have remained absolutely dry for the last about 20days. As such, November is the least rainiest of all, with a normal rainfall of mere 4.1mm. Many a times, the month goes without seeing rain drops. Last three years, no rainfall has been recorded and even 2011 & 2014 remained absolutely dry. However, the minimum temperatures have been plunging much below the normal and frequently dipping to single digit, albeit during the 2nd half of the month. Last year, the minimum temperature persistently remained in single digit and the lowest minimum of 7.3°C was recorded on 29thNov 2022. Year prior, that is Nov 2021, was not as cold and the lowest minimum touched 9.2°C. Yet, the minimum slide to less than 10°C on more than one occasion during the 2nd half of the month.
Western disturbance is likely to arrive on 08thNov and stay around till 10thNov. First and the last day, weather activity will remain confined to the hills only. Mid and higher reaches can expect some rains and snow, whereas the lower hills will experience light to moderate showers. In between, on 09thNov, light rainfall is expected over parts of Punjab, Haryana and North Rajasthan. Delhi falls on the outer peripherals of this weather system but still stand a chance to have some fleeting light showers.
With partly cloudy sky and change in the wind pattern, no further drop in the temperature is likely over the next 3-4 days. Rather, the minimum temperatures may rise to about 16-17°C on 09th and 10thNov. After the passage of the system, the mercury levels will plunge to 13-14°C between 12th and 14thNovember. Slight chill in the air is likely on Diwali, more so in the early morning and late night hours.
The 38th instalment of the ICC World Cup will be between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and will be played at Arun Jaitley Cricket Stadium in Delhi on November 6, i.e. today. The match will start at 2:00 p.m. The temperature will be in the range of 31 and 22 degrees during the match.
Temperature will not be a problem, but a critically high level of air pollution will certainly cause some discomfort to players as well as spectators. Winds will be very light from the east. The humidity level will be around 40% at 2:00 p.m. but will increase gradually by late evening. We expect mild dew over the ground and the pitch during the second half of the match. The sky will be almost clear with no chance of rain.
5 नवंबर की सुबह के दौरान दिल्ली और एनसीआर के कई हिस्सों में धुंध की एक और मोटी परत छा गई। सुबह 7:30 से 9:00 बजे के बीच सतह पर दृश्यता घटकर 400 मीटर रह गई। दिल्ली के कई हिस्सों का वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक खतरनाक श्रेणी में पहुंच गया। वजीरपुर का AQI 626 तक पहुंच गया और ITI जहांगीरपुरी का AQI 611 था. दिल्ली और NCR के कई अन्य इलाकों का AQI 500 से 600 के बीच था. इसे हम आपातकाल कह सकते हैं.
रात के समय हवा की गति लगभग शांत रहती है। दोपहर के समय हवा की गति भी मात्र 3 से 5 किमी प्रति घंटा है। पृथ्वी की सतह के पास कम तापमान वाली हवा और उच्च आर्द्रता के कारण, प्रदूषक जल वाष्प के साथ मिल जाते हैं जिसके परिणामस्वरूप धुंध और धुंध का निर्माण होता है, जिससे स्मॉग की परत बन जाती है। शांत और हल्की हवाओं के कारण प्रदूषक तत्व फैल नहीं पाते और पृथ्वी की सतह के पास ही लटके रहते हैं।
हमें कम से कम अगले 5 दिनों तक हवा की गति बढ़ने की उम्मीद नहीं है, इसलिए दिल्ली और एनसीआर का वायु प्रदूषण गंभीर से खतरनाक श्रेणी में रहेगा। 12 नवंबर को दिवाली का त्योहार भी है। उस दौरान हवा की गति बढ़ने से प्रदूषक तत्व बिखर सकते हैं और वायु प्रदूषण कुछ हद तक कम हो सकता है।
A cyclonic circulation over South Tamil Nadu extends up to 5.8 Km above mean sea level. It is likely to move in West Northwest direction towards Southeast and adjoining East Central Arabian Sea during next three days.
Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to develop over east Central Arabian Sea around November 8. The period between October and December is favorable for the cyclone formation over Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal. We do not expect the low-pressure area to intensify in a depression or cyclone. It may intensive into a well mark the low-pressure area.
It may continue to move in West Northwest direction away from Indian coast. Therefore, we can say that despite slight intensification, there will not be any threat to Indian mainland. Most favorable route of the weather systems developing over Arabian Sea is in Northwest direction. 20 or 30% of the weather system developing over Arabian Sea tend to recurve in northeast direction towards south Sind Gujarat or North Maharashtra.
