दिल्ली और एनसीआर क्षेत्र पिछले सप्ताह के दौरान खतरनाक वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक से जूझ रहे हैं। हालाँकि, बारिश के देवता दिल्ली के लोगों की मदद के लिए आए।
उत्तर भारत में पश्चिमी विक्षोभ से प्रेरित चक्रवाती परिसंचरण के कारण पंजाब, हरियाणा, दिल्ली, उत्तर प्रदेश और राजस्थान के कुछ हिस्सों में व्यापक बारिश हुई है। कई दिनों से हवा में मौजूद प्रदूषक तत्व धुल गए हैं।
दिल्ली और एनसीआर का वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक अभी भी मध्यम से खराब श्रेणी में है। हमें कम से कम अगले 3 से 4 दिनों तक दिल्ली सहित उत्तरी मैदानी इलाकों में प्रदूषक तत्वों में बढ़ोतरी की उम्मीद नहीं है क्योंकि उत्तर-पश्चिम दिशा से हवाएं मध्यम तीव्रता के साथ जारी रहेंगी।
प्रदूषण को ख़त्म करने के लिए दो मौसम कारक, मध्यम से तेज़ हवा और बारिश आवश्यक हैं। बारिश हो चुकी है | अब हवाएं तेज हो जाएंगी और प्रदूषकों को नीचे नहीं जमने देंगी। मध्यम हवाएं प्रदूषकों को बिखेरती रहेंगी।
दिवाली का त्योहार नजदीक है | हम सभी जानते हैं कि पटाखे जलाने से प्रदूषण फैलता है। सौभाग्य से, हाल की बारिश और मध्यम हवाएं प्रदूषकों को जमा नहीं होने देंगी।
Delhi and the NCR region have been battling with a hazardous air quality index during the last week. However, rain gods came to the rescue of the people of Delhi.
A western disturbance-induced cyclonic circulation over North India has given widespread rain over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, parts of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. The pollutants which were suspended in the air for many days, have washed away.
The air quality index of Delhi and NCR is still in the moderate to poor category. We do not expect a spike in pollutants over the Northern Plains including Delhi for at least the next 3 to 4 days as the winds from the Northwest direction will continue with moderate intensity.
The two weather factors, moderate to strong wind and rain are essential to wipe out the pollution. Rain has already occurred. Now the winds over gain speed and will not allow the pollutants to settle down. Moderate winds will keep dispersing the pollutants.
The festival of Diwali is around the corner. We all know that the burning of crackers leads to some pollution. Fortunately, the recent rain and moderate winds will not allow the accumulation of pollutants.
Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific this season resembled largely with ‘Canonical El Nino’. Similar conditions were observed last in 2014, a drought year. Canonical ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. During such an episode, eastern Pacific Ocean gets warmed more than the central and western parts of the ocean. Sometimes, when El Nino is full blown, the west and central Pacific may observe even negative SST anomaly.
El Nino, La Nina, +VE IOD, -VE IOD are crucial oceanic variables. However, these frequently occurring phenomenon have no correlation and any of the combination is feasible. The only strong correlation is invariably seen between -VE Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and El Nino. That is how, ENSO is considered as ocean-atmosphere coupling with El Nino representing the ocean and SOI constituting atmospheric arm.
ENSO: During the last 4 weeks, above average SST’s have strengthened near the Date Line. Earlier, Nino 3.4, the principal indicator for assessing, monitoring and predicting El Nino, showed signs of plateauing with index hovering around 1.5°C and 1.6°C for nearly 8 weeks. However, this index seems still not done and dusted, as the temperature anomaly has risen significantly to 1.8°C, as on 06thNov 2023.
The SOI is one measure of the large scale fluctuation in the air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below normal air pressure at Tahiti (Australia) and above normal air pressure at Darwin ( Australia). The strongly negative margin seen earlier seem to be shrinking. The monthly average of SOI has dropped to -0.5 in October from the seasonal high of -1.3 in September 2023. SOI is more vulnerable to fluctuations and need to be observed for longer durations.
IOD : Like Nino 3.4, Dipole Index is also fluctuating. The IOD index was +1.55°C for the week ending 05Nov 2023, a significant rise from its earlier mark of +1.36°C on 29Oct 2023. The IOD index has been above the threshold value of +0.4°C for the last 12 weeks. Accordingly, 2023 qualifies as positive IOD event year. IOD event typically starts around May and peak between August and October. It rapidly decays when the monsoon arrives in the Southern Hemisphere around the end of ‘spring’ (SH). During positive IOD, westerly winds weaken along the equatorial Indian Ocean, allowing warm waters to shift towards Africa. Such temperature distribution is good for rains over Southern Peninsula and leads to poor rainfall in Australia.
MJO: The Madden-Julian Oscillation is nearly indiscernible. The weak pulse is likely to exit the Indian Ocean and go around the Maritime Continent with a compact amplitude. The transient feature will sail across West Pacific, which otherwise has finished its peak cyclone season, normally observed between May and October. No storm is likely to form over the Indian seas, till the 3rd week of November.
The tropical Pacific atmosphere and oceanic anomalies are consistent with an ongoing El Nino event. As the monsoon trough prepares to shift in the Southern Hemisphere, the pressure gradient between Tahiti and Darwin weakens. The fractured pattern disturbs the SOI distribution. Invariably, it turns neutral during late winters and early spring of Northern Hemisphere. Weakening of atmospheric arm degrades the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) also and gradually reverts to ‘neutral’ conditions.
The 44th instalment of the ICC World Cup cricket match is all set to be played between England and Pakistan at 2:00 p.m. on November 11, i.e. today, at the Eden Garden Stadium of Kolkata.
The weather in Kolkata will remain dry and warm throughout the match. The sky will be almost clear with bright sunshine. The temperature range will be between 31 and 25 degrees. Light winds are expected from the Northwest direction.
Humidity will increase gradually, and we expect mild dew over the pitch and ground during the second half of the match. We do not expect any disturbance weather-wise into the match.
For the past five days or so, the northeast monsoon has remained active over the entire region of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
While rainfall activity has not been as intense in the past 24 hours, the spread has remained decent.
Now, a small break is expected in between and gradually, the rain belt will be shrinking over South India. Along the coast, rains may be likely for today. By tomorrow, rains will shrink further and be limited to the coastline itself.
The day after tomorrow, minimal showers will be seen. However, rainfall is likely to pick up once again but that will only happen around the 14th when a fresh system will form.
राष्ट्रीय राजधानी में अंततः शुष्क अवधि की बाधा हट गई और कल रात और सुबह अच्छी बारिश हुई। दिल्ली में आखिरी बारिश 16-17 अक्टूबर 2023 को हुई थी और उसके बाद एक लंबा ब्रेक आया। सफदरजंग की मुख्य वेधशाला में 6 मिमी वर्षा दर्ज की गई और हवाईअड्डे की वेधशाला में केवल 3 मिमी बारिश मापी गई। सबसे अधिक 12 मिमी बारिश जाफरपुर में दर्ज की गई। लोधी रोड स्थित मौसम कार्यालय में 5.8 मिमी बारिश दर्ज की गई।
राजधानी शहर और एनसीआर में बारिश और बौछारें अभी भी जारी हैं, हालांकि ज्यादातर हल्की से मध्यम प्रकृति की हैं। पालम, सफदरजंग, नोएडा, गुरुग्राम, गाजियाबाद और फ़रीदाबाद में एक साथ रुक-रुक कर बारिश हो रही है। शाम तक इस गतिविधि को जारी रखने और उसके बाद बाहर निकलने के लिए परिस्थितियाँ अनुकूल रहती हैं। प्रचलित हवा का पैटर्न इस बारिश को पश्चिम से पूर्व दिशा की ओर स्थानांतरित कर रहा है। देर शाम तक बुलंदशहर और अलीगढ़ से आगे बढ़ने के लिए रेवाड़ी, झाझर और नूंह से निकासी शुरू हो जाएगी।
मौसम की गतिविधि प्रत्याशित ताजा पश्चिमी विक्षोभ और उत्तर भारत में प्रेरित चक्रवाती परिसंचरण के साथ रही है। उत्तरी पहाड़ों और जम्मू-कश्मीर, पंजाब, हरियाणा और पश्चिम उत्तर प्रदेश की तलहटी में काफी व्यापक गतिविधि हुई। मध्यम गतिविधि पंजाब और हरियाणा के मैदानी इलाकों के उत्तरी आधे हिस्से में फैल गई। सिस्टम का अंतिम भाग राजधानी शहर तक पहुंचने में कामयाब रहा, जिससे अधिकांश क्षेत्रों में छिटपुट बारिश हुई।
मौसम की गतिविधि देर शाम या देर रात तक किसी भी समय बंद होने की उम्मीद है। सिस्टम के मद्देनजर ठंडी हवाएं हवा में कुछ ठंडक लाएंगी। साफ आसमान, नम और ठंडी हवाओं के साथ औसत हवा अगले 3-4 दिनों में न्यूनतम तापमान में 3-4 डिग्री सेल्सियस की गिरावट लाएगी। पहाड़ों की ऊंची और मध्य पहुंच में बर्फबारी और ठंडी उत्तर-पश्चिमी हवाओं के साथ निचली पहाड़ियों में मध्यम बारिश से पूरे क्षेत्र में पारे के स्तर में महत्वपूर्ण गिरावट आएगी। अगले 10 दिनों तक कोई ताजा पश्चिमी विक्षोभ कोई और रुकावट पैदा नहीं करेगा।
The hills and plains of North India have seen some decent rainfall activities. During the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Thursday, Jammu saw 42 mm of rains, Gulmarg 22 mm, Srinagar 22.4 mm, Udhampur 38 mm.
Usually, Western Disturbances are not very strong in November. As it is, going by the time of the season, rains have been good and intensity has been great for the region.
The plains including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and even parts of West Uttar Pradesh and Delhi have seen some rains. However, this spell will not last long and will get over today itself. There could be one odd showers today but nothing significant expected as it is. Tomorrow onward, conditions will clear up.
For Delhi Pollution, winds may temporarily pick up but the situation may not persist for very long. Thus, as far as reduction in pollution is concerned, no long term relief is expected.
National capital finally lifted the dry spell barrier to witness decent showers last night and early morning. Delhi rained last on 16-17 October 2023 and a prolonged break, thereafter. Main observatory at Safdarjung recorded 6mm rainfall and the airport observatory measured just 3mm. The highest rainfall of 12mm was registered at Jafarpur. Meteorological office at Lodhi Road recorded rainfall of 5.8mm.
Rain and showers still continue across the capital city and NCR, albeit mostly light to moderate in nature. Palam, Safdarjung, Noida, Gurugram, Ghaziabad and Faridabad are simultaneously observing intermittent showers. Conditions remain favourable for continuation of this activity till early evening and exit thereafter. Prevailing wind pattern is shifting these rains from west to east direction. Clearance will start from Rewari, Jhajhar and Nuh to cross beyond Bulandshahar and Aligarh by late evening.
The weather activity has been in association with the anticipated fresh western disturbance and induced cyclonic circulation over North India. Fairly wide spread activity lashed the northern mountains and the foothills of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh. Moderate activity spilled over to northern half of Punjab and Haryana plains. Tail end of the system managed to reach the capital city, strapping most areas with much needed sporadic showers.
The weather activity is expected to cease anytime in the late evening or latest by early night. In the wake of system, cold winds will bring some nip in the air. Clear sky, moist and cold winds, coupled with average breeze will drop the minimum temperatures by 3-4°C, over the next 3-4 days. Snow in the higher and mid reaches of mountains and medium rains in the lower hills with chilly northwesterly winds will support significant drop of mercury levels , across the region. No fresh western disturbance will cause any further interruption for the next 10 days.
The 42nd instalment of the ICC World Cup Cricket Match is all set to be played between South Africa and Afghanistan at the Narendra Modi cricket stadium in Ahmedabad on November 10, i.e., today.
The temperature will remain hot and sunny during the initial period of the match as the temperatures will be around 34 or 35 degrees. Humidity will be low around 25%. It will increase to 55% during the second half of the match. We do not expect dew to fall on the ground or the pitch.
Weather will become gradually comfortable after 7:00 p.m. and temperatures are expected to settle between 26 and 27 degrees. We do not expect any disturbance weather-wise during the match.
Most parts of the country have enjoyed rains in the past few days. While the North has been seeing the effect of a Western Disturbance, the southern parts are seeing rains, all thanks to Northeast Monsoon.
Moreover, the cities of Chennai, Mumbai as well as Bengaluru have been seeing some rains. Now, rainfall activity will reduce and showers will be limited to extreme southern parts around Diwali.
Extreme parts of the South Peninsula including Tondi, Madurai, Trichy, Trivandrum, Alappuzha, Nagapattinam, Kanniyakumari, Tuticorin, Palayankottai, Cuddalore, Punalur, Thanjavur will see some showers. Other parts will remain dry for the festival of Diwali.
The northern parts are likely to see a nip in the air, and some wintry chill in late evening and night hours including the day of Diwali.
Cities of Mumbai and Goa have been seeing some rainfall activities for the past couple of days.
Moreover, parts of Konkan may see some showers today. In Mumbai, Colaba saw 24 mm but Santa Cruz did not receive any. Goa saw heavy rains a day before, and 6.2 mm rain was seen in the last 24 hours.
Now, we can expect similar conditions today as well. Conditions remain the same and rainfall may take place over Mumbai, Goa as well as parts of Alibagh, Sindhudurg, and Ratnagiri as well.
Usually, the city of Mumbai or its adjoining areas do not see rains during this time unless a weather system persists in the Arabian Sea, which is the case now.
Northeast monsoon activity has picked up over all the five sub divisions of South Peninsula, for the last 4 days. Weather activity extended further to the neighbouring sub divisions of Telangana, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka and North Interior Karnataka for the last 48hours. Locations like Cannur, Kavali and Goa have been lashed with 100mm rainfall in 24 hours. During last 24 hours, heavy rains have lashed both coast and interiors of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, North Karnataka and Telangana were drenched with moderate to heavy showers at many places.
Chief amounts of rainfall, outside the monsoon sub divisions include : Sangli, Satara, Sholapur, Kolhapur in Madhya Maharashtra ; Gadag, Chitradurga, Mangalore in Karnataka; Nizamabad, Rentachintala, Mahabubnagar, Hyderabad in Telangana; Mahabaleshwar, Matheran, Mumbai in Konkan region. Weather activity is likely to continue over next 48 hours and reduce thereafter. Spread and intensity of rains will be higher in the eastern half of South Peninsula covering Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa, Kerala and interiors of Tamil Nadu. Chennai, Bengaluru and Thiruvananthapuram are expected to have moderate thundershowers over next 24 hours.
There are two weather systems responsible for these bursts of northeast monsoon. A cyclonic circulation is marked over the East-Central Arabian Sea, off the Kerala-Karnataka coast. Another cyclonic circulation is traced over the Comorin region. The combined influence of these features is keeping the monsoon active over southern parts. Typical monsoon activity will last for the next 48 hours and reduce later on. Very limited activity is expected around Diwali. Light spells of intermittent rain will be confined to South Coastal Tamil Nadu and the southern tip of Kerala on Sunday, 12thNov. Rest parts of the country can enjoy festivities without weather playing spoilsport.
