Delhi and the NCR have seen a drop in temperatures with the Safdarjung recording the maximum at 12 degrees today. This is nothing except a seasonal drop. Moreover, no typical situation is developing in terms of weather. We can expect the minimum to see a drop in minimums around 10-11 degrees, which is normal.
The month of November end starts at 15 degrees for Delhi NCR, and by the month's end, the minimum temperature may settle at 11 degrees.
The wind pattern is being perturbed a little due to Western Disturbance moving across. Since winds are not steady and will not allow any significant no improvement is expected in terms of pollution levels. No rainfall activity will also be seen in Delhi and the NCR region, which means dry days are ahead.
श्रीनगर में आख़िरकार इस सीज़न में पहली बार न्यूनतम तापमान शून्य से नीचे पहुंच गया है। श्रीनगर शहर लगभग 6000 फीट की मध्यम ऊंचाई पर स्थित है। नवंबर के तीसरे सप्ताह के आसपास यहां तापमान गिरकर शून्य से नीचे चला जाता है, जो एक सामान्य घटना है। आज न्यूनतम तापमान -0.8 डिग्री देखा गया. इससे पहले 18 नवंबर को न्यूनतम शून्य पर चला गया था लेकिन सकारात्मक स्तर पर रहा।
पिछले साल, शून्य से नीचे न्यूनतम तापमान बाद में 23 नवंबर को हुआ था। आमतौर पर, एक बार जब श्रीनगर उप शून्य तक चला जाता है, तो ज्यादातर यह वहीं के आसपास रहता है जब तक कि कोई पश्चिमी विक्षोभ आगे न बढ़े और तापमान न बढ़ जाए। इस समय काजी गुंड और पटनीटॉप भी शून्य से नीचे की ओर बढ़ रहे हैं।
जहां तक हिमाचल प्रदेश का सवाल है, मनाली राज्य में सबसे ठंडा है लेकिन यह शून्य से नीचे नहीं पहुंचा है। आमतौर पर इसे शून्य से नीचे पहुंचने में कुछ समय लगता है और यह हमेशा श्रीनगर के बाद आता है। पिछले साल, मनाली में नवंबर में कभी भी शून्य से नीचे तापमान नहीं देखा गया, न्यूनतम तापमान 0.6 डिग्री था। मनाली में दिसंबर में ही दिसंबर के आसपास ऐसा उप-शून्य देखने को मिलता है।
लगता है, ऐसे ही हालात देखने को मिलेंगे. ऐसे हालात में चला जाएगा श्रीनगर. एक कमज़ोर पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के आने पर, मामूली परिवर्तन देखा जा सकता है और शून्य तक जा सकता है। हालाँकि, बारिश के संदर्भ में कोई प्रभाव नहीं देखा जाएगा, क्योंकि यह केवल ऊंचे और मध्य इलाकों को प्रभावित करेगा और श्रीनगर जैसे शहरों में बारिश नहीं हो सकती है।
Srinagar has finally seen sub zero minimums for the first time this season. The city of Srinagar lies at a moderate height of around 6000 feet. Temperatures here dip to about these sub zeros around the 3rd week of November which is a normal phenomenon. Today, the minimum was seen at -0.8 degrees. Earlier, on 18th November, the minimum had gone to zero but remained on the plus side.
Last year, sub zero minimum happened later on Nov 23rd. Usually, once Srinagar dips to sub zero, mostly it remains around there unless some Western disturbance moves and raises the temperatures. At present, even Qazi Gund, and Patnitop are heading towards sub-zero.
As far as Himachal Pradesh is concerned, Manali is the coldest in the state but it has not reached sub zero. Generally, it takes some time to get to sub-zero and it always comes after Srinagar. Last year, Manali never saw the sub zero in November, lowest at 0.6 degrees. Manali sees such sub-zeros in December itself, around December.
It looks like, similar conditions will be seen. Srinagar will go into such conditions. With the arrival of a feeble Western Disturbance, marginal change may be seen and go to zero. However, no impact will be seen in terms of rain, as it will only affect higher and the mid reaches and cities like Srinagar may not see rainfall.
North Indian Ocean cyclone season has no bounds but cyclones tend to form between April and December. Pre Monsoon season has a peak in May and post monsoon in November. During thick of southwest monsoon, the storms generally do not form in July and August. Ingress of monsoon in June and retreat in September may still find occasional tropical storms in the Indian Seas, on either side of the coastline.
Most tropical storms have reasonably long sea travel and therefore, extended life cycle beyond 4-5 days. There are exceptions of storms lasting for over a week in the Indian Seas. Cyclones forming over Bay of Bengal have recurving tracks and therefore last longer than the one in the Arabian Sea. However, there is no hard and fast rule to ascertain average duration of the storms. In addition to the life cycle, storms remain precarious of their size and extent. There are storms with a diameter of just about 100km and some other may span beyond 500km.
The recent tropical storm ‘Midhili’ over Bay of Bengal had extremely shortened life span of less than 24hours. A low pressure area had formed over west-central BoB on 14thNov 2023. It intensified to a deep depression on 16thevening over northwest BoB. The weather system intensified to a tropical storm in the early morning hours of 17thNov2023. The storm got steered parallel to the Indian coastline and headed for Bangladesh. The cyclone gathered pace and crossed Bangladesh coast near Khepupara, the same evening. The cyclone had one of the shortest life span and weakened on making landfall. Tropical storm, the 2nd in that area after ‘Mocha’, dumped very heavy rains and lashed the coastal parts of Bangladesh with gale speed winds in excess of 70kmh.
Earlier, a small size storm with a compressed life span was witnessed over BoB in 2006. Cyclone ‘Ogni’ was a small system with only 100km in diameter. This was the smallest storm on record in the basin between 1891-2007. The system had formed over Palk Strait as a cyclonic circulation and intensified in to a depression over east of southeast coast of India, on 29th October 2006. Later that day, it quickly strengthened while moving parallel to the coast, to cyclone Ogni. However, it did not sustain long because of land friction and entrainment. It weakened to a deep depression on 30thOctober and moved ashore Andhra Pradesh between Bapatla and Ongole. Later that day, it degenerated in to a remnant low. It dropped extremely heavy rainfall in Southeast India ( 770mm in Avanigadda-Andhra Pradesh). It had the distinction of smallest size (100km) and shortest life span (<18hours).
The Bay of Bengal will remain an active basin in November 2023. There is a likelihood of another storm entering Andaman Sea from Gulf of Thailand, early next week. It is rather early to have a precision forecast and the region will have to be observed very closely for any fresh development.
Northeast monsoon will become active over Southern Peninsula during this week. The rainfall belt will travel from east to west across Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Tamil Nadu towards Kerala & Lakshadweep during this period. Rainfall spread may increase to reach further northward for couple of days. Telangana, North Karnataka and Maharashtra may also receive decent showers. Even, state of Gujarat may witness unseasonal rains between 25th and 27thNovember.
A north-south elongated trough in easterlies is currently marked over southwest Bay of Bengal, off the coast of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. This feature will travel westward, albeit slowly, moving across Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, between 20th and 25thNovember 2023.
Outside Kerala, rest of the 4 sub divisions of Northeast Monsoon have shortfall of seasonal rains. The sub divisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema have been literally trounced with huge deficit of 78% and 75% rainfall respectively. South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have a recoverable shortfall of 24% and 16% respectively. This is despite the fact that last 2 weeks of November, 02Nov-08 Nov and 09Nov-15Nov, witnessed decent showers. Overall, South Peninsula continue to be deficit by about 39% rainfall between 01Oct and 19th November.
This week will have decent shifting rains over South India. Rainfall will remain confined to mostly South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu on the 20th and 21st of November. Later, the spread will increase, covering Karnataka and Kerala, as well. This may help reduce the deficit marginally. However, the rains are going to lessen, once again, next week.
दिल्ली की वायु गुणवत्ता अब खराब से बहुत खराब श्रेणी में है। हवा की गति बढ़ने से वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक में थोड़ा सुधार हुआ। 9 और 10 नवंबर को पूरे उत्तर पश्चिम भारत में व्यापक बारिश के कारण दिवाली से ठीक पहले दिल्ली और एनसीआर की वायु गुणवत्ता में सुधार हुआ। हालांकि, पटाखों के फोड़ने के कारण दिवाली की रात से यह गंभीर श्रेणी में आ गई। 18 नवंबर तक स्थिति गंभीर थी क्योंकि प्रदूषकों के फैलाव के लिए मौसम संबंधी परिस्थितियाँ अनुकूल नहीं थीं। तापमान कम था और हवा की गति लगभग शांत थी।
हवा की गति में मामूली वृद्धि हुई है जिससे प्रदूषक तत्वों का बिखराव हुआ है और वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक में सुधार हुआ है। हमें अगले 2 दिनों तक किसी खास सुधार की उम्मीद नहीं है क्योंकि हवा की गति बहुत अधिक नहीं होगी। हमें उम्मीद है कि 21 नवंबर से हवाओं की गति बढ़ेगी और उत्तर-पश्चिम दिशा से हवा चलेगी।
पड़ोसी राज्य पंजाब और हरियाणा में पिछले साल की तुलना में पराली जलाने की संख्या में काफी कमी आई है। खेतों की आग से निकलने वाला धुआं निश्चित रूप से दिल्ली के प्रदूषण में योगदान देगा लेकिन इसका प्रतिशत स्थानीय प्रदूषकों की तुलना में बहुत कम होगा।
सरकार ने एक अजीब फैसला लिया है। जीआरएपी IV के तहत उपायों को वापस लेने के बाद दिल्ली में ट्रकों, दिल्ली के बाहर पंजीकृत गैर-बीएस-VI अनुपालन वाले हल्के वाणिज्यिक वाहनों और डीजल मध्यम और भारी माल वाहनों के प्रवेश पर प्रतिबंध हटा दिया गया है। दिल्ली-एनसीआर में बीएस-III पेट्रोल और बीएस-IV डीजल एलएमवी के संचालन पर प्रतिबंध और निर्माण और विध्वंस गतिविधियों पर प्रतिबंध सहित चरण I से III के तहत GRAP उपाय जारी रहेंगे। वास्तव में, प्रदूषकों में वाणिज्यिक वाहनों का योगदान बीएस-III पेट्रोल और बीएस-IV डीजल वाहनों की तुलना में बहुत अधिक है जिनके पास प्रदूषण अनुपालन प्रमाणपत्र है।
Delhi air quality is now in poor to very poor category. The air quality index improved a bit due to an increase in wind speed. The air quality of Delhi and NCR improved just before Diwali due to widespread rain across Northwest India on November 9 and 10. However, it plunged into the severe category from the night of Diwali due to the bursting of firecrackers. The situation was grim until November 18 as the Meteorological conditions were not favourable for the dispersal of pollutants. Temperatures were low and wind speed was almost calm.
Wind speed has increased marginally leading to the dispersal of pollutants and improvement in the air quality index. We do not expect any significant improvement for another 2 days as the wind speed will not be very high. We expect the speed of winds to increase from November 21st and wind will blow from the northwest direction.
The count of stubble burning has reduced significantly in comparison to last year in the neighbouring states of Punjab and Haryana. The smoke from farm fires will certainly contribute to the pollution of Delhi but its percentage will be much less than the local pollutants.
The government has taken a funny decision. The ban on entry of trucks into Delhi, non-BS-VI compliant light commercial vehicles registered outside Delhi and diesel medium and heavy goods vehicles has been lifted after measures under the GRAP IV were rolled back. GRAP measures under stages I to III, including restrictions on the plying of BS-III petrol and BS-IV diesel LMVs in Delhi-NCR and a ban on construction and demolition activities, will continue. In fact, contribution of the commercial vehicles to the pollutants is much larger than the BS-III petrol and BS-IV diesel vehicles which have the pollution compliance certificate.
Finally, the day is here, for the World Cup final match. The happy news is that India has made it to the finals and is all set to fight for the cup.
The World Cup final match will be played between Australia and India at Narendra Modi Cricket Stadium Ahmedabad at 2:00 p.m. today, i.e. November 19. The weather during the match will be warm and Sunny.
The temperature range will be between 30 and 22 degrees. Weather will become comfortable after 6:00 p.m. Light winds from the northeast direction will continue during the match.
Mild dew is possible during the second half of the match over the pitch and the ground. There will not be any obstruction weather-wise during the match and the match will be completed with full overs.
उत्तर पश्चिम भारत के अधिकांश हिस्से अभी भी नवंबर की सामान्य सर्दियों का इंतजार कर रहे हैं। राजस्थान में दिन का तापमान 30 डिग्री से नीचे नहीं गया है. राजस्थान में अधिकतम तापमान 31 से 34 डिग्री के बीच है। न्यूनतम तापमान भी 18 से 24 डिग्री के बीच है.
रबी फसलों की बुआई के लिए सर्दी की समय पर शुरुआत महत्वपूर्ण है। सर्दियों में देरी का मुख्य कारण पश्चिमी विक्षोभ की कम तीव्रता और आवृत्ति को माना जा सकता है। हमने पिछले महीने में पश्चिमी हिमालय के पास कोई मजबूत पश्चिमी विक्षोभ नहीं देखा है। पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के अभाव में पहाड़ों पर कोई खास बर्फबारी नहीं होगी।
राजस्थान, गुजरात और मध्य प्रदेश तक तापमान गिरने के लिए पहाड़ियों और उत्तरी मैदानी इलाकों में बारिश और बर्फबारी महत्वपूर्ण है। पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के गुजरने के बाद बर्फ से ढके पहाड़ों से शुष्क और ठंडी हवाएँ आमतौर पर देश के मध्य भाग तक पहुँचती हैं जिससे तापमान में भारी गिरावट आती है।
हमें कम से कम अगले 8 से 10 दिनों तक पश्चिमी हिमालय के पास किसी सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के आने की उम्मीद नहीं है। इसलिए, हम कह सकते हैं कि नवंबर के अंत तक गुजरात से सर्दी की सामान्य ठंड गायब रहेगी।
Most parts of Northwest India are still waiting for typical November winters. The day temperatures in Rajasthan have not dropped below 30 degrees. Maximums of Rajasthan are between 31 and 34 degrees. Minimum temperatures are also between 18 to 24 degrees.
The timely onset of winter is crucial for the sowing of Rabi crops. The main reason for the delay in winter can be attributed to the lesser intensity and frequency of Western disturbances. We have not seen any strong Western disturbance approaching the Western Himalayas in the last month. There is no significant snowfall over the hills in the absence of Western disturbances.
Rain and snow are crucial over Hills and northern plains for temperatures to drop up to Rajasthan Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. After the passage of the Western disturbance dry and cold winds from snow-clad mountains usually travel up to the centre part of the country leading to a steep fall in temperatures.
We do not expect any active Western disturbance approaching the Western Himalayas for at least the next 8 to 10 days. Therefore, we can say that the typical winter chill will remain absent from Gujarat until the end of November.
The cyclonic storm Midhili over the Northeast and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal moved in north northeast direction and crossed Bangladesh cost near Khepupara between 1430 and 15:30 Hours IST on November 17th.
At the time of landfall, wind speed was 6070Kmph in gusts of 80 Kmph. It weakened into a deep depression over Tripura and adjoining Bangladesh at 2013 hours IST on November 17 and further weekend into a depression at 0530 hours IST on November 18th over Tripura and joining Bangladesh and Mizoram near latitude 23.7 and longitude 91.7 about 50 km East southeast of Agartala and 160 km south-west of Silchar.
It has moved in the northeast direction and weakened into a low-pressure area over South Assam and adjoining Mizoram, Tripura.
Many cities in Bangladesh such as Kaukata, Khepupara, Madaripur, Comilla, Feni, Sandwip, Cox’s Bazar, Teknaf, Sylhet, and Srimangal recorded heavy rainfall. This is the second post-monsoon cyclone of 2023, making landfall over Bangladesh. On October 24, a very severe cyclonic storm ‘Hamoon’ struck Cox’s Bazar. In May 2023 an extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Mocha’ crossed Myanmar, near Sittwe but it spared Bangladesh.
There may be light to moderate showers over Manipur, Nagaland, and Eastern parts of Assam as well as parts of Arunachal Pradesh until the afternoon of November 18. Thereafter weather will go dry once again with isolated light rain.
Attributable to El Nino, the latest victim, as per BBC News is Panama’s drought. The El Nino weather pattern has contributed to the severe drought, says the ‘Panama Canal Authority’ (ACP). The Panama Canal greatly reduces the time, distance and cost of shipping to travel between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In recent months, ACP has imposed various passage restrictions to conserve scares waters.
El Nino impact includes wetter than normal conditions in tropical latitudes of North America and more intense winter-time storms. It also leads to below-normal hurricane / tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. However, their strength does not get compromised by El Nino event.
ENSO: During the last four weeks, +Ve changes in equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies were observed east of the Date Line (180°-130°W), while negative changes were evident in the eastern Pacific Ocean and west of the Date Line. Nino 3.4 region, the marker of Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) remains steady at +1.8°C for the 2nd consecutive week and the highest value since March 2016. This was preceded by a ‘super’ El Nino of southwest monsoon 2015, spilling over to the Northern Hemispheric winters of 2016.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been very volatile this season with a high degree of unpredictability. The index achieved the season’s high of -1.3 in September 2023 and was downgraded to mere -0.5 in Oct 2023. A further drop is likely during November 2023 and may even reverse sign at fag end of 2023.
IOD: The positive Indian Ocean Dipole event continues. The weekly index value for the week ending 12 Nov 2023 was 1.44°C, a marginal drop from its previous mark of 1.55°C on 05 Nov 2023. Positive IOD above the threshold of +0.4°C has been recorded for 13 consecutive weeks, since 21 Aug 2023. Therefore, it exceeds the stipulated requirement of 8 weeks to qualify for a positive IOD event.
The eastern pole of IOD remains much cooler than the western half of the tropical Indian Ocean. This gradient is termed DMI to rate the degree of IOD. Sharper values of DMI denote strong ocean/atmosphere coupling and has a large bearing on the climatic conditions.
MJO: The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently weak. However, it is likely to gain amplitude while traversing eastward across the Western Pacific. The transitory pulse will shift closer to Indian Ocean in Phase-2 by last week of November 2023. This may trigger increased northeast monsoon activity during later part of November.
Following an El Nino event, the ensuing winters of north and east India are generally warmer than average. Winter rains are also decent enough in the plains of North India. El Nino event is likely to peak in Nov-Jan and returning to ENSO neutral by May-Jun 2024. It does sound good for the next monsoon 2024.
