23 नवंबर को एक कमजोर पश्चिमी विक्षोभ आ रहा है। उम्मीद है कि सिस्टम थोड़े समय के लिए रुकेगा और कमजोर स्थिति में रहेगा। वास्तव में, इसका अधिकांश प्रभाव केवल मध्य और ऊंचे इलाकों तक ही सीमित रहेगा, जबकि अधिकतम प्रभाव ऊंचे इलाकों पर होगा। निचले इलाकों में बनिहाल, श्रीनगर, पटनीटॉप आदि स्थानों पर हल्की बारिश ही देखने को मिल सकती है।
जहां तक जम्मू-कश्मीर के तलहटी इलाकों का सवाल है, उधमपुर, जम्मू, कठुआ, सांबा में बारिश नहीं होगी।
सिस्टम आने पर तापमान में और गिरावट रुक जाएगी, जो अगले कुछ दिनों के लिए है। हालाँकि, 25 नवंबर के आसपास तापमान सामान्य हो जाएगा, जब सिस्टम हट जाएगा।
जहां तक पश्चिमी विक्षोभ की आवृत्ति का सवाल है, नवंबर के महीने में ज्यादा सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ नहीं देखे जाते हैं। वास्तव में, अन्य सर्दियों के महीनों की तुलना में, नवंबर सबसे कम प्रभावित महीना है क्योंकि सिस्टम केवल दिसंबर में ही गति पकड़ते हैं। नवंबर के लिए, सिस्टम का ठहराव आम तौर पर कम होता है, और मार्ग तेज़ होता है।
मैदानी इलाकों में इसका एकमात्र असर तापमान के रूप में देखने को मिलेगा। सिस्टम आने पर तापमान में वृद्धि देखी जाएगी और इसके साफ होने पर तापमान में गिरावट देखी जाएगी।
The city of Chennai has seen some good rainfall activity in the last 24 hours. In fact, heavy showers to the tune of 68 mm were recorded at the Nungambakkam observatory. Good rains have been seen in the adjoining areas of the capital city as well.
More rains are likely over the city of Chennai. However, as far as the monthly rains for Chennai are concerned, the city has recorded 284.7 mm against the monthly average of 373.6 mm, which is 90 mm short of the usual rains. The month of November for Chennai is one of the rainiest for the city through the year. Rains recede in the month of December.
More rainfall activity is expected to be seen over Chennai in association with the trough along the Tamil Nadu coast. Rainfall will reduce in the next 24 hours but on and off showers may be seen over the capital city of Tamil Nadu for the next few days. These rains may help in achieving the monthly target
State of Gujarat is likely to have scattered rains during the approaching weekend. Nearly all parts of the state will get showers, albeit of varying spread and intensity. Weather gods will be more courteous for south and central Gujarat while the rest may be somewhat stingy. More rains are likely on Sunday as compared to Saturday and recede thereafter at start of next week.
Gujarat remains largely dry between December and April. Hardly any storm come closer to the state in December. Also, the winter systems of both north and south keep a safe distance from the state. Therefore, only some freak situation may give some sprinkle during this period but chances are next to ‘none’. Month of November does receive some startling showers, as and when some tropical storm from the Arabian Sea strays towards the coastline. This season, the storm is not likely in November but a very uncommon situation developing in the proximity of the state will lead to unseasonal rains over large parts of the state.
An extension of trough line along the West Coast from Kerala and Coastal Karnataka right up to Konkan and Goa will be instrumental for embedding a cyclonic circulation off the coast of South Gujarat and Saurashtra. This feature emerging over Gulf of Cambay and neighbourhood will trigger unexpected rains on the weekend, on 25th and 26thNov 2023. The circulation will weaken on 27thNov and nearly extinct the next day on 28thNov. Therefore, the remnant effect will still be seen on these two days, more so for South Gujarat and South Saurashtra, on 27thNov.
On 25th and 26th, the prominent locations having decent showers will include Vapi, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Anklesvar, Bharuch, Dang and Tapi. Scattered showers will also make their way to Vadodara, Anand, Kheda, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. North Gujarat and most parts of Saurashtra & Kutch will have to bear with light showers across and moderate only at few places. Clear sky with fair amount of sunshine can be expected over most parts of the state from 28thNov onward.
Close on heels of storm Midhili, Bay of Bengal seems to be heading for yet another storm shortly. Meteorological conditions are shaping up fairly and squarely to host another storm in the basin, the fourth of this year for Bay of Bengal. Last storm Midhili struck Bangladesh on the last weekend and another cyclone in quick succession will keep India, Bangladesh and Myanmar on the tenterhooks for hazardous weather conditions.
North Indian Ocean cyclone season has no bounds but cyclones tend to form between April and December. Pre monsoon peak in May and post monsoon spike in November makes it most favourite months for cyclogenesis. Normally, on an average, about 4 storms form in a year in the Indian Seas. Anything more than five is taken as steep hike, attributable to warm sea surface temperatures. This will be the sixth storm of the year, 4th one for Bay of Bengal and the count may still go on.
There is no model consensus so far about the likely cyclone over Bay of Bengal. But, then it is very common to find such disagreement amongst the numerical models. Models take sometime to align for the ideal conditions and converge together for a broader assent. Another 48 hours will be needed to find majority acceptance.
This tropical storm will have its roots over Gulf of Thailand. A cyclonic circulation is marked over the Gulf and adjoining Malay Peninsula in the lower levels. All these perturbations need not necessarily culminate in to stronger systems and few of the get rather fizzle out. However, the geographical, climatological and environment is supportive of further accentuation, albeit at a slower pace. At best, under favourable conditions, the equatorial disturbance may enter the Andaman Sea on or after 25thNovember.
The weather systems with a history of origin from Gulf of Thailand and Malay Peninsula have the privilege of long sea travel. Therefore, these stand better chance to grow and become stronger. Any such system, at this time of the season has the potential to threaten coastline of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, with the last of these at least risk of getting ravaged. Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh become vulnerable for hazardous weather conditions on account of cyclone strike.
It is premature to assess and render precision forecast, so early. Area of influence need to be observed closely for next 48-72hours. Chances of a storm can not be ruled out and prudence demand preparations. As said earlier, the 4th storm of this year for Bay of Bengal, may knock very soon. If so, the storm will be named ‘Michaung’ and pronounced as ‘Migjaum’ as suggested by Myanmar.
A weak Western Disturbance is arriving on November 23rd. The system is expected to have a short stay and will remain on the weaker side. In fact, the majority of its effect will only remain confined to the mid and higher reaches, with the maximum effect over the higher reaches. In lower reaches, only light rains might be seen in places including Banihal, Srinagar, Patnitop etc.
As far as the foothills of Jammu and Kashmir are concerned, Udhampur, Jammu, Kathua, Samba will not see rain.
Further fall in temperatures will be arrested as the system arrives which is for the next couple of days. However, temperatures will be back to normal around November 25, when the system moves away.
As far as the frequency of Western Disturbances is concerned, the month of November does not see many active Western Disturbances. In fact, as compared to the other winter months, November is the least affected month as systems pick up only in December. For November, the stay of the systems is generally short, and the passage is fast.
For the plains, the only effect will be seen in terms of temperatures. The temperatures will see a rise when the system arrives and see a drop when it clears.
The city of Bengaluru has not seen rain in the last ten days. However, as far as the monthly mean is concerned, Bengaluru has already far exceeded the figures by a decent margin. This was not because of daily rains but moderate to heavy rains were seen on two different occasions.
The last ten days have remained dry. The month of November has five rainy days, out of which two rainy days have already been seen. We can expect more rainfall activities, particularly on the November 23rd and 24th.
With Northeast Monsoon picking up, we can easily expect 30-35 mm of rain, which is quite possible with moderate showers during this time. This will also further reduce the temperatures which are already in the pleasant range.
Delhi and the NCR have seen a drop in temperatures with the Safdarjung recording the maximum at 12 degrees today. This is nothing except a seasonal drop. Moreover, no typical situation is developing in terms of weather. We can expect the minimum to see a drop in minimums around 10-11 degrees, which is normal.
The month of November end starts at 15 degrees for Delhi NCR, and by the month's end, the minimum temperature may settle at 11 degrees.
The wind pattern is being perturbed a little due to Western Disturbance moving across. Since winds are not steady and will not allow any significant no improvement is expected in terms of pollution levels. No rainfall activity will also be seen in Delhi and the NCR region, which means dry days are ahead.
श्रीनगर में आख़िरकार इस सीज़न में पहली बार न्यूनतम तापमान शून्य से नीचे पहुंच गया है। श्रीनगर शहर लगभग 6000 फीट की मध्यम ऊंचाई पर स्थित है। नवंबर के तीसरे सप्ताह के आसपास यहां तापमान गिरकर शून्य से नीचे चला जाता है, जो एक सामान्य घटना है। आज न्यूनतम तापमान -0.8 डिग्री देखा गया. इससे पहले 18 नवंबर को न्यूनतम शून्य पर चला गया था लेकिन सकारात्मक स्तर पर रहा।
पिछले साल, शून्य से नीचे न्यूनतम तापमान बाद में 23 नवंबर को हुआ था। आमतौर पर, एक बार जब श्रीनगर उप शून्य तक चला जाता है, तो ज्यादातर यह वहीं के आसपास रहता है जब तक कि कोई पश्चिमी विक्षोभ आगे न बढ़े और तापमान न बढ़ जाए। इस समय काजी गुंड और पटनीटॉप भी शून्य से नीचे की ओर बढ़ रहे हैं।
जहां तक हिमाचल प्रदेश का सवाल है, मनाली राज्य में सबसे ठंडा है लेकिन यह शून्य से नीचे नहीं पहुंचा है। आमतौर पर इसे शून्य से नीचे पहुंचने में कुछ समय लगता है और यह हमेशा श्रीनगर के बाद आता है। पिछले साल, मनाली में नवंबर में कभी भी शून्य से नीचे तापमान नहीं देखा गया, न्यूनतम तापमान 0.6 डिग्री था। मनाली में दिसंबर में ही दिसंबर के आसपास ऐसा उप-शून्य देखने को मिलता है।
लगता है, ऐसे ही हालात देखने को मिलेंगे. ऐसे हालात में चला जाएगा श्रीनगर. एक कमज़ोर पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के आने पर, मामूली परिवर्तन देखा जा सकता है और शून्य तक जा सकता है। हालाँकि, बारिश के संदर्भ में कोई प्रभाव नहीं देखा जाएगा, क्योंकि यह केवल ऊंचे और मध्य इलाकों को प्रभावित करेगा और श्रीनगर जैसे शहरों में बारिश नहीं हो सकती है।
Srinagar has finally seen sub zero minimums for the first time this season. The city of Srinagar lies at a moderate height of around 6000 feet. Temperatures here dip to about these sub zeros around the 3rd week of November which is a normal phenomenon. Today, the minimum was seen at -0.8 degrees. Earlier, on 18th November, the minimum had gone to zero but remained on the plus side.
Last year, sub zero minimum happened later on Nov 23rd. Usually, once Srinagar dips to sub zero, mostly it remains around there unless some Western disturbance moves and raises the temperatures. At present, even Qazi Gund, and Patnitop are heading towards sub-zero.
As far as Himachal Pradesh is concerned, Manali is the coldest in the state but it has not reached sub zero. Generally, it takes some time to get to sub-zero and it always comes after Srinagar. Last year, Manali never saw the sub zero in November, lowest at 0.6 degrees. Manali sees such sub-zeros in December itself, around December.
It looks like, similar conditions will be seen. Srinagar will go into such conditions. With the arrival of a feeble Western Disturbance, marginal change may be seen and go to zero. However, no impact will be seen in terms of rain, as it will only affect higher and the mid reaches and cities like Srinagar may not see rainfall.
North Indian Ocean cyclone season has no bounds but cyclones tend to form between April and December. Pre Monsoon season has a peak in May and post monsoon in November. During thick of southwest monsoon, the storms generally do not form in July and August. Ingress of monsoon in June and retreat in September may still find occasional tropical storms in the Indian Seas, on either side of the coastline.
Most tropical storms have reasonably long sea travel and therefore, extended life cycle beyond 4-5 days. There are exceptions of storms lasting for over a week in the Indian Seas. Cyclones forming over Bay of Bengal have recurving tracks and therefore last longer than the one in the Arabian Sea. However, there is no hard and fast rule to ascertain average duration of the storms. In addition to the life cycle, storms remain precarious of their size and extent. There are storms with a diameter of just about 100km and some other may span beyond 500km.
The recent tropical storm ‘Midhili’ over Bay of Bengal had extremely shortened life span of less than 24hours. A low pressure area had formed over west-central BoB on 14thNov 2023. It intensified to a deep depression on 16thevening over northwest BoB. The weather system intensified to a tropical storm in the early morning hours of 17thNov2023. The storm got steered parallel to the Indian coastline and headed for Bangladesh. The cyclone gathered pace and crossed Bangladesh coast near Khepupara, the same evening. The cyclone had one of the shortest life span and weakened on making landfall. Tropical storm, the 2nd in that area after ‘Mocha’, dumped very heavy rains and lashed the coastal parts of Bangladesh with gale speed winds in excess of 70kmh.
Earlier, a small size storm with a compressed life span was witnessed over BoB in 2006. Cyclone ‘Ogni’ was a small system with only 100km in diameter. This was the smallest storm on record in the basin between 1891-2007. The system had formed over Palk Strait as a cyclonic circulation and intensified in to a depression over east of southeast coast of India, on 29th October 2006. Later that day, it quickly strengthened while moving parallel to the coast, to cyclone Ogni. However, it did not sustain long because of land friction and entrainment. It weakened to a deep depression on 30thOctober and moved ashore Andhra Pradesh between Bapatla and Ongole. Later that day, it degenerated in to a remnant low. It dropped extremely heavy rainfall in Southeast India ( 770mm in Avanigadda-Andhra Pradesh). It had the distinction of smallest size (100km) and shortest life span (<18hours).
The Bay of Bengal will remain an active basin in November 2023. There is a likelihood of another storm entering Andaman Sea from Gulf of Thailand, early next week. It is rather early to have a precision forecast and the region will have to be observed very closely for any fresh development.
Northeast monsoon will become active over Southern Peninsula during this week. The rainfall belt will travel from east to west across Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Tamil Nadu towards Kerala & Lakshadweep during this period. Rainfall spread may increase to reach further northward for couple of days. Telangana, North Karnataka and Maharashtra may also receive decent showers. Even, state of Gujarat may witness unseasonal rains between 25th and 27thNovember.
A north-south elongated trough in easterlies is currently marked over southwest Bay of Bengal, off the coast of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. This feature will travel westward, albeit slowly, moving across Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, between 20th and 25thNovember 2023.
Outside Kerala, rest of the 4 sub divisions of Northeast Monsoon have shortfall of seasonal rains. The sub divisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema have been literally trounced with huge deficit of 78% and 75% rainfall respectively. South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have a recoverable shortfall of 24% and 16% respectively. This is despite the fact that last 2 weeks of November, 02Nov-08 Nov and 09Nov-15Nov, witnessed decent showers. Overall, South Peninsula continue to be deficit by about 39% rainfall between 01Oct and 19th November.
This week will have decent shifting rains over South India. Rainfall will remain confined to mostly South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu on the 20th and 21st of November. Later, the spread will increase, covering Karnataka and Kerala, as well. This may help reduce the deficit marginally. However, the rains are going to lessen, once again, next week.
दिल्ली की वायु गुणवत्ता अब खराब से बहुत खराब श्रेणी में है। हवा की गति बढ़ने से वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक में थोड़ा सुधार हुआ। 9 और 10 नवंबर को पूरे उत्तर पश्चिम भारत में व्यापक बारिश के कारण दिवाली से ठीक पहले दिल्ली और एनसीआर की वायु गुणवत्ता में सुधार हुआ। हालांकि, पटाखों के फोड़ने के कारण दिवाली की रात से यह गंभीर श्रेणी में आ गई। 18 नवंबर तक स्थिति गंभीर थी क्योंकि प्रदूषकों के फैलाव के लिए मौसम संबंधी परिस्थितियाँ अनुकूल नहीं थीं। तापमान कम था और हवा की गति लगभग शांत थी।
हवा की गति में मामूली वृद्धि हुई है जिससे प्रदूषक तत्वों का बिखराव हुआ है और वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक में सुधार हुआ है। हमें अगले 2 दिनों तक किसी खास सुधार की उम्मीद नहीं है क्योंकि हवा की गति बहुत अधिक नहीं होगी। हमें उम्मीद है कि 21 नवंबर से हवाओं की गति बढ़ेगी और उत्तर-पश्चिम दिशा से हवा चलेगी।
पड़ोसी राज्य पंजाब और हरियाणा में पिछले साल की तुलना में पराली जलाने की संख्या में काफी कमी आई है। खेतों की आग से निकलने वाला धुआं निश्चित रूप से दिल्ली के प्रदूषण में योगदान देगा लेकिन इसका प्रतिशत स्थानीय प्रदूषकों की तुलना में बहुत कम होगा।
सरकार ने एक अजीब फैसला लिया है। जीआरएपी IV के तहत उपायों को वापस लेने के बाद दिल्ली में ट्रकों, दिल्ली के बाहर पंजीकृत गैर-बीएस-VI अनुपालन वाले हल्के वाणिज्यिक वाहनों और डीजल मध्यम और भारी माल वाहनों के प्रवेश पर प्रतिबंध हटा दिया गया है। दिल्ली-एनसीआर में बीएस-III पेट्रोल और बीएस-IV डीजल एलएमवी के संचालन पर प्रतिबंध और निर्माण और विध्वंस गतिविधियों पर प्रतिबंध सहित चरण I से III के तहत GRAP उपाय जारी रहेंगे। वास्तव में, प्रदूषकों में वाणिज्यिक वाहनों का योगदान बीएस-III पेट्रोल और बीएस-IV डीजल वाहनों की तुलना में बहुत अधिक है जिनके पास प्रदूषण अनुपालन प्रमाणपत्र है।
