Unseasonal and unusual rainfall lash parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and MP

There has been quite a decent spell of unseasonal and unusual rains over many parts of Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat as well as Madhya Pradesh. These rainfall activities have been widespread in nature with heavy rainfall being recorded over many areas including Khargone 84 m, Dhar 50 mm, Washim 66 mm, and Parbhani 77 mm.

These rainfall activities have been attributed to 2 opposite moving systems including an easterly trough along with the embedded cyclonic circulation along the Gujarat coast as well as an anticyclone on the other side. Western disturbances have also been on the northern side which has added to these rainfall activities.

The confluence zone still remains due to which Southwest Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha as well as Maharashtra and Marathwada are expected to see rainfall activities. After today, rainfall is expected to vacate Rajasthan and Gujarat and only light rainfall is expected today.

Parts of Maharashtra including Vidarbha and Marathwada will continue seeing rains with the possibility of hailstorms. Extreme southern parts of MP will see rains. In fact, rains in Maharashtra will continue until November 29th.

Unseasonal Mumbai rains to cease now

Mumbai has been seeing rainfall activities for the past couple of days. Moreover, the city has seen some light rains to the tune of 2 mm in the last 24 hours as well. These rains, however, have been unseasonal and unusual for Mumbai.

The reason for the rains can be attributed to the interaction between the westerly system and the easterly system. A trough extends right along the Western coastline up to Gujarat. A Western Disturbance is over the Western Himalayas.

When two opposite systems interact, the movement becomes slow and the spread becomes more as the systems restrict the movement of each other and the spread and duration of rains become more.

Cloudy skies are being seen over Mumbai. We can see some rain today for the same reason. However, the rainy spell will be getting over after today. In fact, after today, only clouding may be seen over the region.

[Hindi] ताज़ा पश्चिमी विक्षोभ पश्चिमी हिमालय तक पहुँच गया है

एक ताज़ा पश्चिमी विक्षोभ पश्चिमी हिमालय के पास पहुँच गया है। इसके साथ, हम जम्मू-कश्मीर, हिमाचल प्रदेश और उत्तराखंड में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश और गरज के साथ बारिश की उम्मीद कर सकते हैं। हम इन राज्यों के ऊंचे इलाकों में छिटपुट बर्फबारी भी देख सकते हैं।

इन मौसम गतिविधियों के कारण उत्तराखंड में सुरंग बचाव कार्यों में महत्वपूर्ण बाधा की संभावना नहीं है। पश्चिमी हिमालय के अन्य हिस्सों की तुलना में उत्तराखंड में मौसम की गतिविधियाँ बहुत कम होंगी।

हमने अक्टूबर या नवंबर में कोई महत्वपूर्ण पश्चिमी विक्षोभ नहीं देखा है। 9 और 10 नवंबर के आसपास एक सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ देखा गया, जिसने मैदानी इलाकों पर एक परिसंचरण को प्रेरित किया, जिसके परिणामस्वरूप उत्तर भारत के मैदानी इलाकों और पहाड़ियों दोनों पर अच्छी बारिश हुई। उस प्रणाली ने दिल्ली और एनसीआर में प्रदूषकों को धो दिया था।

हालाँकि, पश्चिमी हिमालय पर निकट भविष्य में ऐसी प्रणाली की उम्मीद नहीं है। इसके अलावा, महीने के अंत तक एक कमजोर सिस्टम देखने को मिल सकता है लेकिन इसका मैदानी इलाकों पर उतना असर नहीं पड़ेगा।

Fresh Western Disturbance approaches Western Himalayas

A fresh Western Disturbance has approached the Western Himalayas. With this, we can expect light to moderate rain and thunderstorm activity over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. We can also witness isolated snowfall over the higher reaches of these states.

Significant obstruction is not likely in the tunnel rescue operations in Uttarakhand due to these weather activities. Weather activities will be much milder over Uttarakhand than in other parts of the Western Himalayas.

We have not seen any significant Western Disturbance in October or November. An active Western Disturbance was seen around November 9 and 10, which induced a Circulation over the plains, resulting in good rain over both the plains and the hills of North India. That system had washed away the pollutants over Delhi and NCR.

However, such a system is not expected over the Western Himalayas anytime soon. Moreover, a feeble system may be seen by the end of the month but it will not affect the plains as such.

[Hindi] महाराष्ट्र और मध्य प्रदेश में बेमौसम बारिश

आज से महाराष्ट्र के कई हिस्सों में बारिश की गतिविधियां शुरू हो जाएंगी। शुरुआत में, दक्षिण मध्य महाराष्ट्र, दक्षिण मराठवाड़ा और कोंकण और गोवा में बारिश देखी जाएगी।

26 नवंबर को उत्तरी मध्य महाराष्ट्र के कई हिस्सों, मराठवाड़ा के कुछ हिस्सों और विदर्भ के पश्चिमी हिस्सों में मध्यम से भारी बारिश होगी। वास्तव में, भागों में जलजमाव की संभावना से इंकार नहीं किया जा सकता है।

26 नवंबर की सुबह से दक्षिण-पश्चिम मध्य प्रदेश के कई हिस्सों में भी बारिश शुरू हो जाएगी और 27 नवंबर तक जारी रहेगी।

इस बारिश का कारण दो मौसम प्रणालियों को माना जा सकता है। उनमें से एक एक ट्रफ रेखा है जो उत्तरी पाकिस्तान से लेकर पश्चिमी राजस्थान और गुजरात होते हुए पूर्वोत्तर अरब सागर तक फैली हुई है। एक और ट्रफ रेखा दक्षिण पूर्व अरब सागर से उत्तरी महाराष्ट्र तट तक फैली हुई है। इन मौसम प्रणालियों के संयुक्त प्रभाव से उत्तरी महाराष्ट्र और दक्षिण-पश्चिम मध्य प्रदेश के कई हिस्सों में भारी बारिश होगी।

27 और 28 नवंबर को पूरे विदर्भ और मध्य प्रदेश के दक्षिणी हिस्सों में बारिश होगी। इंदौर, भोपाल, मध्य प्रदेश, रतलाम, उज्जैन, धार, खंडवा, खरगोन, जलगांव, नासिक, मालेगांव, अहमदनगर, औरंगाबाद, शिरडी में भारी बारिश होगी। मुंबई और आसपास के इलाकों में भी कुछ बारिश हो सकती है, जिससे प्रदूषकों को धोने में मदद मिलेगी।

Unseasonal rains to lash Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh

Rain activities will commence over many parts of Maharashtra today onward. Initially, rains will be seen over South Madhya Maharashtra, South Marathwada and Konkan and Goa.

On November 26, many parts of North Madhya Maharashtra, parts of Marathwada and western parts of Vidarbha will see moderate to heavy showers. In fact, chances of waterlogging in parts cannot be ruled out.

Rains will also commence over many parts of Southwest Madhya Pradesh from morning of November 26 and will continue until November 27.

The reason for these rains can be attributed to two weather systems. One of them being a trough extending fron North pakistan to Northeast Arabian Sea across west Rajasthan and Gujarat. Another trough is extending from Southeast Arabian sea to North Maharashtra coast. The combined effect of these weather systems will result in heavy showers over many parts of North Maharashtra and Southwest Madhya Pradesh.

Rains will cover entire Vidarbha and southern parts of Madhya PRdesh on November 27 and 28. Rains will be heavy over Indore, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, Ratlam, Ujjain, Dhar, Khandwa, Khargone, Jalgaon, Nashik, Malegaon, Ahmednagar, Aurangabad, Shirdi etc. Mumbai and adjoining areas may also see some rains, which will further help in washing away the pollutants.

El Nino And IOD Both Hold Strong, MJO Too Becomes Active

El Nino and IOD are both going strong, holding their peak values. They do not seem to be scooting soon. Which one blinks first, is anybody’s guess. Historic records vouch for IOD smoothening first, not later than December. ENSO neutral is likely but not earlier than May 2024.

ENSO: Monitoring of ENSO conditions mainly focuses on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in four geographical regions of the equatorial Pacific. SST anomalies =/> than 0.5°C in the Nino 3.4 region (170°W-120°W) are indicative of ENSO’s warm phase. Nino 3.4 has an overlapping layer from Nino 3 & Nino 4 regions. It is taken as a principal measure for assessing, monitoring and predicting El Nino. Nino 3.4 anomalies are averaged over the three months ending with the current month and that value is called the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). When the ONI exhibits a warm phase ( >/= 0.5°C), for at least five consecutive values, it is declared as an El Nino event.

Although the precise reason for ENSO development still remains far from fully understood, the linkages between its two components have been firmly established. The departure in the SST represents El Nino, the atmospheric arm is attributable to the pressure variation between Tahiti and Darwin.

Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 have recorded the highest positive departure since Feb 2016. Following the strong El Nino of 2015, the warming persisted till spring of next year (May 2016). Similar conditions are expected during the current episode as well.

IOD: The positive Indian Ocean Dipole event continues and is maintaining strong levels. The latest weekly value of the index was + 1.49°C for the week ending 19th Nov 2023. The IOD index value for the event has been the 2^nd highest since records of the Australian Bureau SST dataset began in 2001, with the highest value occurring in the strongest positive IOD event of 2019. The highest value of IOD during the current episode was +1.92°C on 15 Oct 2023.

MJO: The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently over the Western Hemisphere and Africa in Phase-1. It is likely to move over the Indian Ocean in Phase 2&3. A Substantial increase in amplitude is anticipated as well. The dominance of ENSO and IOD is making the diagnosis of MJO difficult. Notwithstanding, the current scenario augurs well for enhancing the pulse of clouds and rain over the Indian seas, more so over the Bay of Bengal. An uptick in the weather activity is likely during the last days of Nov and rolling over further to the first week of December. Cyclone formation has already been indicated over BoB anytime soon. This may as well be followed by another cyclone spinning up in quick succession.

While El Nino is expected to accentuate the Northeast Monsoon over South Peninsula, active MJO will trigger strong activity over the Indian seas, in the coming days. ENSO neutral during the next southwest monsoon may be construed as a welcome pointer for the economy.

How to Get Over the Winter "Snow Storming" in Relationships

It is no secret that winter can be a difficult time for relationships. The cold weather and lack of daylight make it hard to get out and spend time with your partner. If you are single, it can be even harder to meet someone for a relationship. Here are some tips to help you get through the winter blues.

What Does "Snow Storming" Mean in Relationships?

Winter snow storming in dating involves terminating a current love affair and letting it go while everybody else clings to their lover throughout the cuffing season. Is it a good decision though? The reasons for going down this road vary. Are you tired of carrying a long-dead entanglement around? After all, wasting your precious time in a draining love affair is unnecessary.

However, not many dare to take such a step for fear of being left alone. You might be snowed in with your partner, and suddenly, the red flags you have been ignoring start to magnify. Sometimes your partner makes the choice for you, and all you have to do is accept it and start thinking about your love life beyond that. Fortunately, there are plenty of ways to overcome snow storming.

How the Internet and Casual Dating Can Help

The first thought to relieve yourself of a snowstorm in relationships and outside may be the desire to stay at home. Since we are all now actively using the Internet, you can find a like-minded person who will help you find the joy of dating again. Online dating sites allow you to meet a partner in your area, so you can try hooking up with a few people without the need for commitment.

For starters, you could try a discreet hookup, which is a great way to break from the burden of compelling relationships. Online hookup sites provide a way to connect with people looking for the same thing as you. This takes the pressure off of relationships and makes them more fun because you can participate in discreet dating and not reveal your identity until you choose to. It can also help you to find more compatible hookup partners. In fact, statistics show that activity on online dating sites usually increases significantly during the winter months than any other period.

Now that wintertime is upon us, it is a great time to take a step back, reflect and reassess your approach to dating. Take a break from life's usual hustle and bustle, and focus on yourself for once. If you are looking for something without a lot of commitment, then discreet hookups may be a good fit.

Whatever you do, do not give up on love. Winter may be a difficult time for relationships, but it is also a time for entanglements and new beginnings.

How to Use Online Hookup Sites Effectively

Most believe that winter blues are real, and most people have a difficult time coping. One of the ways to overcome winter blues, as we already know, is to try online dating. There are plenty of online hookup sites where you can find potential partners with minimal effort. After all, these websites have superior matchmaking features that make it easy to meet the best partner. However, how can you ensure you utilize these functionalities efficiently to find your best match?

First and foremost, take your time browsing through profiles, and do not rush into things. While at it, do more research on the profile you find, even on social media, to understand their personalities better. Also, always read the Terms & Conditions of any hookup sites before signing up to understand their rules as well as the dos and don'ts.

Conclusion

The cold weather and shorter days during the winter can make you feel lonely and depressed, which can cause problems in your affairs. Fortunately, there are steps that you can take to deal with relationship challenges during the winter. You could consider online matchmaking or try casual dating, which is free of most drama that comes with serious relationships. Whatever steps you take, remember that there is a solution for you, so don't think about winter coating during the colder months. Subsequently, look for a partner that is into you, notwithstanding your shortcomings and human weaknesses, that is the foundation of a lasting relationship.

[Hindi] पश्चिमी हिमालय पर हल्की बारिश और बर्फबारी संभव है

पश्चिमी हिमालय की पहाड़ियाँ सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ का इंतज़ार कर रही हैं। दरअसल, हमने अब तक पश्चिमी हिमालय पर कोई सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ नहीं देखा है। एक मध्यम तीव्रता वाला पश्चिमी विक्षोभ 9 और 10 अक्टूबर को और फिर 9 और 10 नवंबर को पहाड़ियों पर पहुंचा, जिससे हल्की से मध्यम बारिश और बर्फबारी हुई।

अक्टूबर के दूसरे भाग और नवंबर के अधिकांश हिस्सों में महत्वपूर्ण बारिश और बर्फबारी नहीं हुई। यही कारण है कि उत्तर-पश्चिमी भारत में सामान्य सर्दी अनुपस्थित है।

25 नवंबर की रात से एक ताजा पश्चिमी विक्षोभ पहाड़ों की ओर आ रहा है। 26 से 27 नवंबर के बीच जम्मू-कश्मीर, हिमाचल प्रदेश और उत्तराखंड में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश और बर्फबारी हो सकती है। हालांकि, बारिश की गतिविधियां बहुत तीव्र और व्यापक नहीं होंगी।

ये सिस्टम अक्टूबर में पश्चिमी हिमालय की ओर बढ़ना शुरू करते हैं और मार्च तक जारी रहते हैं, दिसंबर और जनवरी के दौरान चरम तीव्रता होती है। हालाँकि, नवंबर में 2 से 3 सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ भी पहाड़ों पर आते हैं। हालाँकि, पिछले साल अक्टूबर और नवंबर के महीनों में पश्चिमी विक्षोभ की आवृत्ति और तीव्रता सामान्य से काफी कम रही है।

Light rain and snow are possible over Western Himalayas

The hills of the Western Himalayas are waiting for an active Western disturbance. In fact, we have not seen any active western disturbance over the Western Himalayas until now. A moderate-intensity Western disturbance approached the hills on October 9 and 10 and again on November 9 and 10, giving light to moderate rain and snow.

The second half of October and most parts of November did not witness significant rain and snow. That is the reason that typical winter chill is absent over Northwest India.

A fresh Western disturbance is approaching the hills from the night of November 25th. There may be light to moderate rain and snow over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand between November 26 and 27. However, rainfall activities will not be very intense and widespread.

These systems start approaching the Western Himalayas in October and continue until March, with peak intensity during December and January. However, 2 to 3 active Western disturbances also approach the hills in November. However, the frequency and intensity of Western disturbances have been much lower than normal since last year in the months of October and November.

Spurt In Cyclone Activity, Bay Of Bengal Grab Recurrent Storms

Cyclonic storm is likely to form over Bay of Bengal (BoB), early next week. Potentially, this may spin up to become an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS), record 4^th ESCS in the Indian seas this year. Storms over BoB at this time of the year ride on warm sea surface and gather expansive heat potential. Extended sea travel further increase severity and the ravaging capacity. Longer the stay over sea, larger is the fury of storms.

A cyclonic circulation is entering South Andaman Sea from Gulf of Thailand, in the next 24 hours or so. As it consolidates, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region in the subsequent 24hours. Northern parts of Strait of Malacca, Malay Peninsula and South Andaman Sea is a suitable breeding ground for potential storms. Favourable environmental conditions will stimulate the low pressure to rapidly intensify to a depression first and go on to become a tropical storm by 28^th/ 29^thNovember 2023.

Indian seas normally find 4-5 tropical storms in a year. Bay of Bengal has slightly bigger share as compared to the Arabian Sea. Last, it was in 2019, when total of 9 tropical cyclones formed, 6 of them in Arabian Sea and only 3 over BoB. The strongest IOD that year could be the trigger. Otherwise, BoB prevails for increased stormy activity, more so, during the post monsoon season. Last year, Arabian Sea did not host any storm and all the 3 found their roots in BoB, one in the pre monsoon and 2 in post monsoon. Prior to that, Indian seas hosted 5 storms each in 2020 & 2021, 3 each in BoB and 2 over Arabian Sea. In 2013 also, all 5 storms formed over Bay of Bengal, giving amiss to Arabian Sea.

Indian seas have evolved 5 cyclones so far. Brewing cyclone will raise the figure to 6, not achieved earlier since 1998: 2018 & 2019 being an exception on account of positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Bay of Bengal will not be ‘done and dusted’ after the current storm, which will be named as ‘Michaung’ and pronounced as ‘Migjaum’. Another cyclone may follow in quick succession, making it record 7^th storm in a year. Even, 2^nd half of December is not oblivious to cyclogenesis, more so, when the Indian basins appear to be hyperactive. The increase in the activity during November and likely December, is attributable to peaking ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’ and amplifying ‘Madden Julian Oscillation’ over the Indian Ocean.

Bay of Bengal had 3 cyclonic storms this year and Arabian Sea only 2, so far. Total of 3 ESCS together, one over BoB and 2 of these over Arabian Sea. In the pre monsoon season Biparjoy struck Naliya ( Gujarat) and during post monsoon, Tej made landfall in Al Mahrah Govemorate – Yemen. In BoB, all three storms spared Indian coastline. ESCS ‘Mocha’ crossed Sittwe – Myanmar on 14May 2023 and the other 2 storms, ‘Hamoon’ and ‘Midhili’ struck Bangladesh in the post monsoon season.

The cyclonic storms remain dubious of their timelines, track and intensity. Precision forecast of their landfall is possible only couple of days, sometimes even lesser than that, before striking landmass. The climatology and steering current, put together may give a broader picture of their track. As per initial assessment, the emerging cyclone over BoB may gain enough severity to become very severe or extremely severe storm. However, it may skirt the Indian coastline, like its predecessors, and head for Bangladesh. The Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal will be under close observation for reliable prediction around early next week.

Stormy Week Coming Up Next, Severe Cyclone Likely Over Bay Of Bengal

Yet another cyclone, the fourth one of this year for the Bay of Bengal, will make a knock early next week. November is proving itself to be the peak activity month for the storms, across Indian Seas. Favourable sea conditions and a supportive environment getting aligned with the climatology and dynamic forcing are pointing towards a strong possibility of tropical storms over the southeast Bay of Bengal.

There are early signs of cyclonic circulation emerging over the Gulf of Thailand, anytime soon. A convective cloud cluster in that area has manifested this feature, with indications of further flaring over the next 24 hours. This circulation, when organized, is likely to move across the Malay Peninsula in the proximity of the Strait of Malacca. Further, this weather system will enter the South Andaman Sea and equatorial parts of the extreme southeast Bay of Bengal on 25th November. Favourable conditions will consolidate the system further to a low pressure first and quickly to a depression by 26th/27th November. In all probabilities, it may evolve into a significant tropical storm by 28th/29th November 2023.

Cent Percent model consensus is still not achieved on the formation and accentuation of sea-born disturbance. Therefore, precision forecast about the track and intensity of the storm will have to wait, at least till it emerges over the Andaman Sea. At the cost of reiteration, geographical location, climatology and atmospheric conditions are boosting the chances of potential storms over the Bay of Bengal. Even statistically, the weather disturbance entering Andaman Sea from the far east regions, at this time of the year is more promising for cyclogenesis.

Storms originating over the South Andaman Sea are obsessed with a long sea travel. Accordingly, the chances of growing severity and the size, become synonymous. These are termed potentially dangerous storms. Also, the recurving track of such storm subject the entire coastline from Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh at risk of being soft targets. This likely storm will be named ‘Michaung’ and pronounced as ‘ Migjaum’ as proposed by Myanmar. The count of storms will go on further, with early signs of another one trailing the same route.