Cyclone Formation Over Bay Of Bengal Lingers, Model Divergence Bit Large

Tropical storm is likely to form over Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the next few days. Earlier, emergence of low pressure area over South Andaman Sea was decelerated. Further development also likely to be retarded and slow. However, despite these hitches, cyclone formation is assured, sooner than later, over southeast and adjoining southwest BoB.

Low pressure area formed over South Andaman Sea and northern parts of Malay Peninsula, yesterday. First obstacle has been crossed and system has become well marked low pressure area. Further intensification to a depression may be sometime late tomorrow. Subsequent strengthening to a tropical storm may while away more time. There is large divergence amongst the numerical models towards timelines, intensity and track.

The invest area pertaining to the upcoming storm is currently centered around 5.1°N and 91.6°E, over the Andaman Sea in the close proximity of equatorial region. Possibly, the low latitude is responsible for slowing down the process. The low pressure is expected to move west-northwestward, albeit slowly, and gain latitude. It is essential for these systems to reach close to 8°-10°N, to introduce dynamic forcing to sustain growth and development.

Currently, this is the lone weather system in the whole theater, around the globe striving to rev up. There is a steady increase in consolidation of low level moist flow. Environmental conditions are favourable with low vertical wind shear (about 10Kts), warm sea surface temperature (28°-29°C) and good outflow in the higher levels. Potential for development in to a cyclone within next 48hours is low. Speedy accentuation is likely after 01^stDecember when the vortex goes beyond 10°N. Significant increase in the Coriolis Force and rising heat potential promise tropical storm over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, on 02^nd December. Further track of the storm continue to remain a puzzle, as of now. There is large variation with respect to the path and the coastline from Tamil Nadu to Andhra Pradesh/ Odisha and further on to Bangladesh remain open for strike or skirt.

The upcoming storm need close observation for another 24-36 hours for any precision forecast. The recurving storms, along the Indian coastline have a tendency to get drained out due to increased frictional levels. Sufficient distance from the landmass will be requisite to gain force and severity. As and when it forms, the storm will be named ‘Michaung’, as proposed by Myanmar and will be pronounced as ‘Migjaum’.

[Hindi] पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के कारण उत्तर भारत के पहाड़ों पर भारी बारिश और बर्फबारी होगी

पश्चिमी विक्षोभ पश्चिमी हिमालय के करीब पहुंच गया है और अगले 3-4 दिनों में उत्तर भारत के पर्वतीय राज्यों से होकर गुजरेगा। निचली पहाड़ियों में हल्की बारिश और 12,000' से ऊपर की ऊंचाई वाले मध्य और ऊंचे इलाकों में बारिश और बर्फबारी की संभावना है। मौसम गतिविधि का प्रसार और तीव्रता जम्मू और कश्मीर, हिमाचल प्रदेश और उत्तराखंड से घटते क्रम में होगी।

पश्चिमी विक्षोभ को ऊपरी वायु प्रणाली के रूप में अधिक महत्वपूर्ण रूप से चिह्नित किया गया है। इसके राजस्थान और आसपास के इलाकों में पहले से मौजूद चक्रवाती परिसंचरण के साथ जुड़ने की संभावना है। इसका असर पहाड़ी इलाकों में ज्यादा और मैदानी इलाकों में सीमित दिखेगा। श्रीनगर, पटनीटॉप, पहलगाम, गुलमर्ग, मनाली, कुल्लू, धर्मशाला, डलहौजी और शिमला में बारिश और बर्फबारी की संभावना है। उत्तराखंड में गढ़वाल क्षेत्र में कुमाऊं क्षेत्र की तुलना में अधिक सक्रियता रहेगी। गतिविधि केंद्रों में पौडी, गढ़वाल, टेहरी, उत्तरकाशी और रुद्रप्रयाग शामिल होंगे। इसमें उत्तरकाशी क्षेत्र में सुरंग बचाव अभियान भी शामिल होगा। पिथौरागढ, बागेश्वर, चंपावत और अल्मोडा में हल्की से मध्यम, छिटपुट मौसमी गतिविधियां देखने को मिलेंगी।

28 नवंबर और 01 दिसंबर को मौसम की गतिविधियां हल्की, व्यापक और तीव्र होंगी। इस बीच, मध्य और ऊंचे इलाकों में मध्यम बारिश/बर्फबारी और निचली पहाड़ियों में छिटपुट बारिश होने की संभावना है। उत्तरी पहाड़ों में 02 दिसंबर से मौसम की स्थिति में सुधार होगा। इस सिस्टम के चलते ठंड बढ़ेगी, जिससे उत्तर भारत के पहाड़ी और मैदानी दोनों इलाके प्रभावित होंगे।

Western Disturbance To Lash Rain And Snow Across Mountains Of North India

Western disturbance has approached Western Himalayas and will travel across the mountain states of North India over the next 3-4 days. Light rain in the lower hills and rain and snow in the mid and higher reaches, with elevation above 12,000’ is likely. Spread and intensity of weather activity will be in the descending order from Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand.

Western disturbance is marked more significantly as upper air system. It is likely to pair up with the pre existing cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan and neighbourhood. The impact will be seen more in the hills and limited in the plains. Rain and snow is likely over Srinagar, Patnitop, Pahalgam, Gulmarg, Manali, Kullu, Dharamsala, Dalhousie and Shimla. Over Uttrakhand, Garhwal region will have more activity than the Kumaon area. The activity centers will include Pauri, Garhwal, Tehri, Uttarkashi and Rudraprayag. This also will include the tunnel rescue operations in the Uttarkashi region. Pithoragarh, Bageshwar, Champawat and Almora will receive light to moderate, scattered weather activity.

Weather activity will be rather mild, spread and intensity, on 28th Nov and 01^st Dec. In between, moderate rain/snow in the mid and higher reaches and scattered rains are expected in the lower hills. Weather conditions will improve from 02^nd December onward, across the northern mountains. Chill and freeze will follow in the wake of the system, affecting both, the hills and the plains of North India.

Delhi rains make appearance after two weeks

Delhi and the NCR region have after a long time recorded some rainfall activity. In fact, in the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Monday, Safdarjung saw some rain to the tune of 7 mm. In fact, the entire city has seen light rains varying from 2 mm to 7 mm.

These rainfall activities have been recorded after two weeks. Even now the city can see some rainfall activity but only during the evening in the night time.

Conditions remain favourable for some rains. However, the interaction between systems that caused rain has become weak. A Cyclonic Circulation still persists over Rajasthan and Western Disturbance is still moving across. The combined effect might be seen for the next three days, and light rains may be seen. Moreover, we can also see some rainfall activity on December 1 as well but during that time rain will start to recede.

Unseasonal rains to continue in Maharashtra

Unseasonal rains have lashed many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan as well as Gujarat. Usually, right from the month of November, the northern systems start to move from west to east systems in association with the Northeast Monsoon move from east to west.

When these systems get aligned over the landmass, along the West Coast, that is when the interaction between two systems takes place. Moreover, it is only because of these systems that the central parts of the country see rain otherwise these regions do not see rains during this time of the season.

Hoshangabad, Betul, Seoni, Chhindwara and large parts of Vidarbha and Marathwada Parbhani, Beed have recorded good rainfall activities. Light rains have been seen in Madhya Maharashtra.

As of now, weather conditions have improved over Gujarat. Rains will continue over southern parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra for at least the next three to four days, spilling over to North Chhattisgarh.

In fact, with strong winds will be seen. As we proceed towards the weekend or so, it will become milder and the spread will also start shrinking and get over by the 4th or so due to a potential storm in the Bay of Bengal.

Chennai rains to continue for some more time

Chennai rains have been seen for the longest time and good rainfall activity have been seen. Nungambakkam saw good rains even in the last 24 hours. In fact, rainfall in Chennai so far in the month of November has already exceeded 400 mm and are close to reaching 450 mm against the monthly average of 376.6 mm.

For the next two to three days, Chennai rains are expected to continue as part of normal Northeast Monsoon phenomenon. Rains will be seen along Tamil Nadu coast because of the trough running along the coastline. Also, a Cyclonic Circulation is down south Sri Lanka.

Rains will be more tomorrow as compared to today, Day after tomorrow, we can expect even more rains.

Low Pressure Area Forms Over Andaman Sea, Intensification To Cyclone Likely

Much anticipated low pressure area has formed over South Andaman Sea and Strait of Malacca. Low pressure will move west-northwest and strengthen to depression over southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB). Simultaneously, it will gain latitude, which is very essential for sustenance and growth. Depression over southeast BoB will tend to move northwest and intensify in to tropical storm by 01^stDecember 2023.

There is no consensus, as of now, amongst various numerical models on prediction of track, intensity and timelines. Going by climatology, the coastline from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha to West Bengal & Bangladesh will be at risk of cyclone strike. Many of these storms, at this time of the season, move along the coastline in the close proximity, threatening Andhra Pradesh and Odisha for landfall.

Sea conditions are favourable for strengthening of the weather system. Adequate heat potential and moderate wind shear will support further intensification of the system. Longer the sea travel, stronger will become the cyclone. However, when the storm remains in the close vicinity of land for long, it tends to degrade and erode its configuration due to increased friction.

Precision forecast of this tropical cyclone will need another 36-48 hours. The steering current and position of the sub tropical ridge will be the deciding factors for the likely path of this storm. This will be the 4^th tropical storm of the year over Bay of Bengal and 6^th one over the Indian seas. The cyclone will be named Michaung, as proposed by Myanmar, and pronounced as Migjaum.

Cyclone In Bay Of Bengal Defers timeline, Trigger Starts Anytime Soon

True to its repute, likely cyclone over Bay of Bengal (BoB), has been changing timelines. Earlier, a low pressure area, precursor to the upcoming cyclone, expected to form around the weekend has undergone schedule update. Apparently, it is changing timelines and track as well and therefore its likely path is nothing short of a wilder guess, at this point. However, environmental conditions are still ensuring formation of a cyclone during later half of this week.

A cyclonic circulation, preamble to the main system, is marked over South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood, up to the medium levels of the atmosphere. Sea surface is warm enough to raise the heat potential in the region and upgrade this feature to a low pressure area in the next 24hours. Further intensification is quite likely to a depression, somewhere over lower end of southeast BoB, in the subsequent 24-36 hours. More than 80% of such depressions over these areas, strengthen further to become a tropical storm, at this time of the season.

The expected cyclone will be 4^thone of this year over Bay of Bengal. Also, the cyclone will be named ‘ Michaung’ and pronounced as ‘ Migjaum’. The tracks of such cyclones remain most uncertain, to start with. The path of storm is largely controlled by the steering current and the position of sub-tropical ridge. Any westerly trough, deep in amplitude, over the northern parts can further influence the recurvature, preventing a landfall along Indian coastline. Much of the clarity comes, once the system gets organized and manifested as depression, in the satellite imageries and wind field.

Notwithstanding the future coarse, the entire coastline from TamilNadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal to Bangladesh& Myanmar remain at risk of striking storm. Storms emerging at this time of the season are known for taking a recurved track, bracing Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast. Bangladesh remains equally vulnerable to landfall of such weather systems.

[Hindi] दिल्ली में आज बारिश की संभावना, दिन में बादल छाए रहेंगे और ठंड रहेगी

राष्ट्रीय राजधानी में पिछले कुछ दिनों से कोई वर्षा गतिविधि दर्ज नहीं की गई है। हालाँकि, अब, दिल्ली में बारिश आज ही दस्तक देने के लिए तैयार है। इस बारिश को पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के बढ़ने से जोड़कर देखा जा रहा है। उत्तर भारत के मैदानी इलाकों के कई हिस्सों में पहले ही बारिश हो चुकी है।

हालाँकि, बारिश हल्की रहेगी। अगले तीन से चार दिनों तक हम शहर में बादल छाए रहने की उम्मीद कर सकते हैं लेकिन आज बारिश की संभावना अधिक है।

जहां तक वायु गुणवत्ता का सवाल है, हमें बहुत अधिक बदलाव की उम्मीद नहीं है, प्रदूषण में बहुत अधिक बदलाव की उम्मीद नहीं है क्योंकि बारिश उतनी महत्वपूर्ण नहीं होगी। फिलहाल न्यूनतम तापमान दोहरे अंक में रहेगा। सप्ताहांत में न्यूनतम तापमान कुछ हद तक कम हो सकता है। दिन का तापमान 20 के मध्य में रहेगा, लेकिन बादलों और तेज़ हवाओं के साथ, हम पवन शीतलन कारक में वृद्धि की उम्मीद कर सकते हैं।

Chennai rains to continue until month end, likely to spill over during initial days of December

The city of Chennai during the month of November sees a good amount of rainfall. In fact, the months of October and November are the rainiest of the year. This November also, Chennai rainfall has been on the higher side.

So far, Chennai's Nungambakkam Observatory has recorded over 400 mm of rains against the monthly average of 376.6 mm. This means that the city has already surpassed the monthly mean for November.

Now also, Chennai rains are expected to continue for at least the next 3-4 days. This means that until month-end, Chennai is expected to continue receiving rainfall activities. Moreover, we can expect rainfall to spill over during the first few days of December as a system is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal.

Delhi rains expected today, days to be cloudy and colder

The national capital has not recorded any rainfall activity for the past few days. However, now, Delhi rains are all set to make an appearance today itself. These rains are to be seen in association with a Western Disturbance moving. Many parts of the plains of North India have already seen rainfall.

Rains, however, will remain on the lighter side itself. For the next three to four days, we can expect cloudy weather conditions for the city but the chance of rain is more today.

As far as Air Quality is concerned, we do not expect a lot of change Not much change in pollution is expected as rain will not be that significant. Minimum temperatures for now will be in double digits. Towards the weekend, minimums may be reduced to some extent. Day temperatures will remain in the mid-20s, but with clouding and strong winds, we can expect an increase in the wind chill factor.

Unseasonal and unusual rainfall lash parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and MP

There has been quite a decent spell of unseasonal and unusual rains over many parts of Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat as well as Madhya Pradesh. These rainfall activities have been widespread in nature with heavy rainfall being recorded over many areas including Khargone 84 m, Dhar 50 mm, Washim 66 mm, and Parbhani 77 mm.

These rainfall activities have been attributed to 2 opposite moving systems including an easterly trough along with the embedded cyclonic circulation along the Gujarat coast as well as an anticyclone on the other side. Western disturbances have also been on the northern side which has added to these rainfall activities.

The confluence zone still remains due to which Southwest Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha as well as Maharashtra and Marathwada are expected to see rainfall activities. After today, rainfall is expected to vacate Rajasthan and Gujarat and only light rainfall is expected today.

Parts of Maharashtra including Vidarbha and Marathwada will continue seeing rains with the possibility of hailstorms. Extreme southern parts of MP will see rains. In fact, rains in Maharashtra will continue until November 29th.