मध्य भारत के कई हिस्सों खासकर मध्य प्रदेश विदर्भ और छत्तीसगढ़ में पिछले कुछ दिनों से बेमौसम बारिश हो रही है। यह बेमौसम बारिश मध्य प्रदेश के कुछ हिस्सों में अगले 24 से 48 घंटों तक जारी रहेगी।
हालाँकि, वर्षा की तीव्रता में कमी आएगी। इस मौसमी गतिविधि का कारण मध्य प्रदेश के ऊपर एक संगम क्षेत्र का निर्माण माना जा सकता है। उत्तर-पश्चिम से आने वाली शुष्क हवाएँ बंगाल की खाड़ी से आने वाली पूर्वी और दक्षिण-पूर्वी आर्द्र हवाओं के साथ विलीन हो रही हैं।
मध्य प्रदेश और मध्य भारत के आसपास के क्षेत्रों के लिए नवंबर और दिसंबर शुष्क महीने माने जाते हैं। मध्य भारत के अधिकांश हिस्सों में 5 दिसंबर से मौसम शुष्क होने की उम्मीद है। वर्तमान में, बंगाल की खाड़ी में एक चक्रवात बन रहा है और पूर्वी और मध्य भारत के अधिकांश हिस्सों में हवाएँ पूर्वी दिल्ली दिशा से चलेंगी। ये आर्द्र पूर्वी हवाएँ तापमान को गिरने नहीं देंगी। 6 दिसंबर तक चक्रवात का प्रभाव ख़त्म हो जाएगा और उत्तर-पश्चिम से शुष्क और ठंडी हवाएँ चलने लगेंगी जिससे तापमान में गिरावट आएगी।
Many parts of Central India particularly Madhya Pradesh Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh have been witnessing unseasonal rainfall for the last few days. These unseasonal rains will continue over parts of Madhya Pradesh for another 24 to 48 hours.
However, rainfall intensity will decrease. The reason for this weather activity can be attributed to the formation of a Confluence zone over Madhya Pradesh. The dry winds from the Northwest are merging with easterly and south-easterly humid winds from the Bay of Bengal.
November and December are considered as dry months for Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas of Central India. Weather is expected to go dry from December 5th over most parts of Central India. Currently, a cyclone is brewing up in the Bay of Bengal and winds will be from east Delhi direction over most parts of East and Central India. These humid easterly winds will not allow the temperature to drop. The impact of cyclone will fade away by December 6th and dry and cold winds from Northwest will commence leading to a fall in temperatures.
Depression over Bay of Bengal, a precursor to the likely tropical storm Michaung, has intensified in to a deep depression. Next intensity elevation will take the weather system to cyclone category. It is likely to happen by late tonight or in the wee hours tomorrow. The depression has moved west - northwest and travelled over 400km in the past 24hours and likely to retain the same coarse till it becomes a cyclonic storm over southwest Bay of Bengal.
The deep depression is centered around 11 degree North and 83 degree East. It is still about 400km east-southeast of Chennai. Circulation center of the deep depression is getting overlaid and masked with clouds. The satellite imagery depicts consolidated bands of deep convection wrapped around the broad area of low level circulation.
The weather system is placed in favourable environment. Sea surface is warm enough with temperature of 29degree and vertical wind shear remains low, of the order of 10-15Kts. These two factors should essentially support for sustenance of systems over deep sea. The cloud configuration also has decent inflow and outflow. The fourth storm of this year over Bay of Bengal is ready to evolve, anytime in the next 16-18 hours.
The cyclonic storm will be named 'Michaung' and will be the sixth named storm of this year in the Indian Seas. Once it becomes a storm, the steering current will move it more of northwest first and north-northwest later, as it approaches coastline of South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The northeast - souwest orientation of the coastline will force the storm to go for landfall, anywhere between Nellore and Kakinada. As a tropical storm, the system will have the promity of land, increasing friction and drop in the sea surface temperature, reducing the heat potential.
Therefore, Michaung may not become very severe and may strike coastline as a tropical storm. It will still be powerfull enough to cause deluge with blinding rains and uproot some trees and damage transmission poles due to roaring squally winds. People staying next to the coast may need to taken to safe shelters, lasting not longer than 48hours.
Parts of North Tamil Nadu, including the capital city Chennai need to remain on alert for heavy rains and gusty winds. Coastline of Andhra Pradesh from Nellore, Kavali, Ongole, Bapatla, Machilipatnam, Kakinada and Tuni also need to observe similar or rather high alert, commencing wee hours of 03rdDecember, Sunday.
After making landfall, the storm may get eroded due to terrain effect and therefore weaken, a bit. However, after landfall, the steering current will move the storm more northward first and northeastward later, nearly parallel to the coastline, right up to South Coastal Odisha. The vicinity of the Bay of Bengal, during this phase, may not permit rapid weakening of the storm, as it usually happens, after landfall. The storm will weaken substantially, only by 06th December. All cautions need to be observed, till 'all is clear, signalled by the weather and relief agencies.
El Nino conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain strong with key oceanic and atmospheric variables consistently aligned for a perfect coupling. Low level easterly winds are weaker than normal near the International Date Line, while near normal over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In the equatorial Pacific Ocean, sub-surface temperatures are also generally warmer than averages.
ENSO: Nino Indices are measured across vast areas of the Pacific Ocean. The equatorial stretch of 10°latitude (5°N-5°S) between 160°E to 80°W, through 180° measures about 12 million square kilometer. Nino 1+2 lies from equator to 10°S between 80°W-90°W. The temperature variation is seldom equally distributed across the stretch. The most commonly used region to assess the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is the Nino 3.4 region. Nino 4 region is more consistent in maintaining SST’s at or above the threshold value of 28°C, necessary condition for the development and persistence of deep convection in the tropics. It is easier for Nino 3.4 to have SST anomaly of +0.5°C and attain deep convection during the start of El Nino event, which invariably commences in Apr-Jun and reach maximum strength during Oct-Feb. However, during the peak time of El Nino, a larger anomaly of the SST will be required to achieve similar scale of deep convection. Accordingly, Nino 4 region is considered as a better choice for ascertaining La Nina as compared to Nino 3.4. An SST anomaly of -0.5°C in that region would be sufficient to bring water temperature below 28°C threshold and commensurate westward shift in the deep convection pattern in the tropical Pacific.
All the Nino Indices have consistently been warming except Nino 1+2, possibly due to the proximity of land. Nino 3.4, the representative of ONI has first time crossed 2°C since February 2016, after the super El Nino of 2015.
IOD: Indian Ocean Dipole, like El Nino, is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. It is characterized by anomalous cooling of SST in the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous warming of SST in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. It is shown by several researchers that the IOD in the Indian Ocean can evolve without the ENSO forcing from the tropical Pacific. However, some researchers argue that on some occasions, ENSO can force the IOD. This complex relation between the ENSO and the IOD needs further confirmation. Like ENSO, IOD also significantly influences various climate signals.
The positive IOD event continues. It is currently tracking as a strong event, despite having marginal drop. The IOD index for the week ending 26Nov 2023 was 1.39°C, slightly lower than the last week mark of 1.49°C. This may be construed as start of the ‘break down’ process. But, looking at the strength of positive IOD event, normalcy may restore a little later than usual, this year.
MJO: The Madden-Julian Oscillation, that has been mostly non-existent for the past several weeks has risen from the dead, over Bay of Bengal. It is expected to support cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal till first week of December, before it travels far in the Maritime Continent with wincing amplitude. The Maritime Continent is a significant feature in the Earth’s climate system. An easterly trade wind along the ocean surface here creates a warm pool. This region, known as the Indo-Pacific warm pool persistently have a SST >/= 28°C and is often the warmest ocean region around the globe.
The trio of El Nino, IOD and MJO will keep the Indian basins active till first week of December. The formation of a cyclonic storm will disturb the monsoon streamline pattern. Restoration may take a few days to one week after the travel of the storm is complete. Therefore, northeast monsoon may remain in a lean phase over South Peninsula during 2nd week of December.
The city of Chennai has been seeing intense rainfall activities for quite some time now. In fact, moderate showers were seen even during the last 24 hours to the tune of 43 mm.
Now also, Chennai rains are expected to continue. In fact, starting tomorrow, the city will see the effects of the upcoming Cyclone which is brewing in the Bay of Bengal and the outer bands of the storm will come in proximity of the national capital of Tamil Nadu in the next 24 hours which means moderate to heavy rains may be seen.
Moreover, by December 3, we can expect heavy to very heavy rains to lash the city of Chennai because of the storm coming closer to the coast which will also continue on December 4. As it is, an orange alert has already been issued for the residents of North Coastal Tamil Nadu in view of the upcoming Cyclone Michaung for December 3 and 4.
The states of Maharashtra as well as Madhya Pradesh have been seeing unseasonal rains for quite some time now. In fact, during the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Friday, Khandwa recorded 21 mm, Pachmarhi 23 mm, Ahmednagar 25 mm, Buldana 24 mm, Jalgaon 19 mm, Guna 15 mm, Jabalpur 15 mm, and Damoh 17 mm.
These unseasonal rains will continue on December 1st and 2nd. Showers will reduce on December 3rd and 4th. Rainfall activity will be seen vacating on December 5th.
During the next few days, rains will be very limited over Madhya Maharashtra. Even for Vidarbha only western regions will be seeing rains. On the other hand, no rainfall will be seen over Nagpur, Wardha and Washim.
For Madhya Pradesh, rains will be limited over Jabalpur, Umrao, Sagar, Satna, and Rewa. Meanwhile, rains will not be seen in parts of Gwalior, Guna, Tikamgarh, Indore, Ujjain, Neemuch, and Ratlam.
पश्चिमी विक्षोभ और उत्तर भारत पर प्रेरित चक्रवाती हवाओं के क्षेत्र के परिणामस्वरूप श्रीनगर, काजी गुंड, बनहिल, मनाली, शिमला आदि पहाड़ियों पर अच्छी बारिश हुई है। इन क्षेत्रों में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश देखी गई है। इसके अलावा, पटियाला, लुधियाना, अंबाला, हिसार आदि मैदानी इलाकों में भी बारिश देखी गई है।
गुरुवार सुबह 8:30 बजे से पिछले 24 घंटों के दौरान काजी गुंड में 21 मिमी, श्रीनगर में 17 मिमी, जम्मू में 6 मिमी, मनाली में 4 मिमी आदि बारिश हुई।
अब, उत्तर भारत के पहाड़ी इलाकों में आज मौसम की कुछ गतिविधियां देखने को मिलेंगी, जबकि मैदानी इलाकों में कुछ हद तक राहत मिलेगी। जहां तक तापमान की बात है तो इस सिस्टम के चलते जल्द ही तापमान में गिरावट देखने को मिलेगी।
दिल्ली का न्यूनतम तापमान दहाई अंक में रहने की उम्मीद है। देश के उत्तरी हिस्सों के साथ-साथ पंजाब और बठिंडा, फिरोजपुर, पठानकोट समेत कुछ आसपास के इलाकों में न्यूनतम तापमान एकल अंक में रह सकता है। इनमें से कुछ हिस्सों में घना कोहरा छाए रहने का भी अनुमान है।
2023 is not yet over and data of last two months, November and December 2023, is yet to be collated. But, a provisional report from the United Nation World Meteorological Organization confirmed that it is set to be the warmest on record. The average global temperature from Jan to Oct 2023 is 1.4°C above the pre industrial period. This is the highest during the last 174 years of observation period.
Earlier, the two warmest years of 2016 and 2020 measured 1.29°C and 1.27°C above the threshold mark. This year, June to October months have surpassed previous records for respective months by a big margin. July 2023 as such was an all time hottest on record. Despite triple dip La Nina, the period from 2015 to 2023 have been the warmest on record. Courtesy strong El Nino, year 2023 may scale new heights to become the hottest ever. El Nino has large contribution in warming the large span of Pacific Ocean and has recorded peak values in November 2023. With no signs of any immediate let up, its contribution of rising average temperature may enlist November and December as the warmest, as well.
Maximum Antarctic Sea ice extent for the year was one million square kilometers less than the previous record low. Glaciers are experiencing ‘extreme melt seasons’. Share of Carbon Dioxide is 50% higher than the pre industrial era. This is largely due to emissions on account of fossil fuel and trapping heat in the atmosphere. COP-28 is underway to deliberate contentious issues, render clarity and put a leash to ascertain accountability.
The Western Disturbance and the induced Cyclonic Circulation over North India have resulted in good rains over the hills including Srinagar, Qazi Gund, Banhil, Manali, Shimla etc. Light to moderate rains have been seen over these areas.
Moreover, rains have also been seen over the plains including Patiala, Ludhiana, Ambala, Hisar etc.
During the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Thursday, Qazi Gund 21 mm, Srinagar 17 mm, Jammu 6 mm, Manali 4 mm etc.
Now, the hills of North India will be seeing some weather activity today while the plains will see some clearance. As far as tempertaures are concerned, in the wake of the system, soon temperatures will witness a drop.
Delhi minimum is expected to remain in the double digit. Punjab along with the northern parts of the country and some adjoining areas may see minimum in single digit including Bathinda, Ferozepur, Pathankot. Patchy fog is also expected in some of these parts.
Well marked low pressure over Bay of Bengal (BoB) has intensified in to a depression today morning. Depression is centered around 9.4°N and 86.4°E, gaining a latitude of 2° and westward drift of about 300km, in the past 24hr. It is located around 800km southeast of Chennai and nearly 1000km from Machilipatnam. It is likely to maintain same track for the next 24hours, intensify to a deep depression and move over southwest BoB.
The satellite imagery with fine resolution is showing fragmented curved banding with signs of consolidation. Deep convection wrapped around the broad low level cyclonic circulation has grown in coverage. Apparently, the presence of Madden-Julian Oscillation has triggered large convection and enhanced outward flow. Environmental conditions remain favourable, like the last two days. Low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperature and least entrainment support its intensification to a tropical storm. While the system moves steadily northwest with gradual consolidation, the potential for upgradation to a cyclone in the next 24 hours is increased to ‘medium’ and ‘high’ in the next 36-48hr.
Numerical models still differ in predicting track, timelines and intensity. There is consensus for development of a storm but dichotomy remains regarding strength and landfall. With the realistic assumption of this weather system gaining latitude of 3° in 24 hours, the consistent northwestward movement will bring it closer to South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. North Tamil Nadu coast from Puducherry & Chennai and Nellore, Kavali, Ongole, Bapatla, Machilipatnam and Kakinada of Coastal Andhra Pradesh fall within the striking distance of the storm. The curved and northeast-southwest oriented coastline of Andhra Pradesh may restrict its sea travel. Therefore, the cyclone may make landfall between Nellore and Kakinada on 04thDecember 2023. Confidence of this forecast is not very high and will be revisited in the next 24hours. Likely intensity and the landfall timings will need further deliberations.
The outer bands of the storm will reach the coast of Tamil Nadu on 2nd December and the core of storm close in further on 03rdDec. Active northeast monsoon conditions will lash Tamil Nadu with scattered moderate to heavy rainfall on 01st and 02nd Dec. The storm will invade north Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh with heavy to very heavy rains on 03rd and 04th Dec. Squally winds, pouring rains, lightning & thunderstorms may give a scary look all along the coast of these two states. Sea condition will be extremely rough and utmost precautionary measures will be needed for off shore activities and sea born platforms, if any.
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मध्य प्रदेश राज्य में बेमौसम बारिश की गतिविधियां देखी जा रही हैं और वह भी मध्य प्रदेश के पूर्वी और पश्चिमी हिस्सों सहित राज्य के लगभग सभी हिस्सों में।
अब भी, बारिश पश्चिम से पूर्व की ओर बढ़ेगी लेकिन बैतूल, होशगनाबाद, पचमढ़ी, भोपाल, टीकमगढ़ और दमोह सहित पश्चिमी और दक्षिण-पश्चिमी भागों से शुरू होकर पूरे राज्य को कवर करेगी। सतना, रीवा, सागर, जबलपुर और उमरिया सहित अन्य हिस्सों में भी बारिश होगी।
आज और कल अच्छी बारिश जारी रहेगी, इसके बाद 2 और 3 दिसंबर को कुछ कमी देखने को मिलेगी। इस दौरान महाराष्ट्र और आसपास के इलाकों में भी कुछ गतिविधियां देखने को मिल सकती हैं। हम केवल 4 दिसंबर तक क्लीयरेंस की उम्मीद कर सकते हैं।'
जब तक तूफान आएगा, हवा का प्रवाह उस प्रणाली की ओर निर्देशित हो जाएगा और यह पैटर्न तूफान की स्थिति से नियंत्रित होगा। इस कारण मध्य प्रदेश से मौसमी गतिविधियां बंद हो जाएंगी।
