Monsoon 2015 ended with 14% rainfall deficiency. Southwest Monsoon has vacated entire North and Northwest India. It has also withdrawn from some parts of West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and north Arabian Sea. Further withdrawal is not likely anytime soon.
The cyclonic circulation over south-central parts of the Bay of Bengal could turn into a well-marked low pressure area or depression. But, weather models do not indicate the forming of any storm. The system will take about 2 days to affect the coastal areas.
The other cyclonic circulation over East-central Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast will gradually become less marked. There is a trough joining both these weather systems. This will keep Monsoon active over the peninsular region for next few days. Heavy showers likely in Karnataka and Kerala. Scattered rains are expected in Goa and coastal Maharashtra.
As we move northwards, we could see an anti-cyclone over Rajasthan. This system has pushed away Monsoon from North and parts of Central India. For the next few days rainfall will be confined to Peninsular India.
Day temperatures over North and Central India will remain in mid-thirties. But, night will be cool and breezy. Gujarat and Rajasthan will remain warmer with day temperatures in higher thirties.
