Its curtains down for Southwest Monsoon 2018, with the country recording below normal rainfall to the tune of 91% of the long period average (LPA). The countrywide cumulative rainfall for the overall season from June 1 till September 30 was recorded at 804 mm against the normal rains of 887.5 mm.
This in sync with the Skymet Weather’s revised forecast of below average rainfall at 92% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the LPA, with 25% chance of drought. Monsoon 2018 has ended with near drought-like conditions, with countrywide cumulative deficiency at 9.4%.
This Monsoon had been deficit rainfall in all four months that too with increasing trend. June ended with deficiency of 5%, that increased in July to 6% and further to 8% in August. However, deficiency increased by manifolds in September that ended with 22%.
We could have invariably landed up in drought conditions, but then came the savior Cyclone Daye in the third week of September, which snatched the country from the clutches of drought. Though season had given promising indications during the beginning but early appearance of likely El Niño and absence of IOD-Indian Ocean Dipole and MJO- Madden-Julian Oscillation changed the dynamics.
Talking about the region-wise Monsoon Performance, as predicted, pockets of Southern Peninsula remained deficit, particularly, Lakshadweep Islands, North Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema are the poorest performers with high rainfall deficiency to the tune of 45%, 29% and 37%, respectively.
Click the image below to see the live lightning and thunderstorm across India
Similarly, East and Northeast India also underperformed with rain deficiency of 24%. In fact, it was poorer than our expectation. Arunachal Pradesh finished with whopping deficiency of 32%, Assam & Meghalaya 26%, Jharkhand 28% and Bihar 25%.
However, as per our accurate forecast, Northwest India performed at par. Specially Punjab, that after a long gap of five years, ended with 7 percent above normal rains. Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir too performed well with above normal rains to the tune of 11% and 12%, respectively.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
