It seems that 2018 is turning out to be a dangerous year for Kerala. The state was yet to recover from bad memories of Kerala floods, and now another spell of heavy rains is on cards to wreak havoc. This can be attributed to a potential depression which is likely to form in Southeast Arabian Sea. But before we proceed let’s see what happened earlier.
Skymet predicted heavy rains weeks before- the Kerala floods. And the devastation that happened was way beyond imagination. As you can see in the visuals what God’s own country gone through.
As it is visible from a bird eye view that at one point of time, almost the entire state was submerged.
Coming back to present, ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) is lying close to the equator, with series of embedded cyclonic circulations, moving from east to west direction. And we soon expect a low pressure area to form over Southeast Arabian by October 5 or 6.
Let’s look through the 7-day rainfall forecast.
The system would be travelling in favourable weather conditions in northwest direction, i.e. sea surface temperatures of around 28°C or 29°C and low wind shear. With this, we are expecting system to get more marked and induce a depression soon. In fact, chances are bright that it may form into a cyclonic storm as well. However, for this we need to wait and watch for the next few days.
Not let’s see closely what is going to happen. I’m going to bring the map out to showcase the rainfall pattern over the forthcoming week. Moderate to heavy rains and thundershowers would lash many parts of Kerala October 4 onwards as the system will be moving inward.
Rains would increase exponentially thereafter, and we can expect heavy to very heavy rains between October 6 and 8. Sea conditions would remain rough to very rough off and along the coast right from October 6.
With a rich network of over 100 Automatic Weather Stations across Kerala, Skymet Weather would be tracking the system closely, giving live rainfall status. This information will be available widely on Skymet website. We have created a page for Kerala where people can check live rainfall status. As you can see blue one is raining right now.
Click the image below to see the live lightning and thunderstorm across India
And if a tropical storm forms, we can expect some torrential rains for the state. This would be almost a reminder of Cyclone Ockhi in 2017 that had claimed over 250 lives and injured hundreds.
During that time also, Skymet Weather had given live weather updates. Being a responsible weather forecasting and monitoring agency in the country, we have been sharing vital weather information since long. We feel it as the utmost priority to disseminate our vital information to concerned stakeholders through our own network , which may be evidently seen in our messages in Skymet portals, twitter handles ,Disaster Management Whatsapp group etc.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
