We have entered the last leg of Southwest Monsoon. The average rainfall for the month of September is far less than July and August. Thus, September has the risk of large rainfall variability.
The Western Disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir will bring only light rainfall over the hills of North India.
The Monsoon trough will continue to run closer to the foothills of the Himalayas up to Northeast India. The plains of North India will remain mostly dry. Maximums here are 2 to 3 degrees above normal.
Southwest Monsoon will remain vigorous over Northeast India. The cyclonic circulation over Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand will continue to bring torrential rains over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya. But, the intensity of rainfall has definitely reduced. Some relief likely in the flood hit Assam as well.
The trough extending from this system will run across West Bengal, Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh. Good showers likely along the trough line.
West Coast will receive only light rainfall. Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala will remain mainly dry. Rest of the country could receive light rains.
