It is going to be another week of active Monsoon conditions for the country, which again means good rain for most regions like Central, East and North India. As forecast, the Southwest Monsoon last week performed to expectation. Central India was the region that observed the maximum amounts of rain during this period. Several places like Vadodara, Surat, Pune, Nashik and Mumbai observed over 100 mm of rain on a few occasions. Heavy rains were also recorded in Katara, Una and Kapurthala in North India.
According to the rainfall data available with us, 453.5 mm of rain has been recorded in the country from June 1 to August 4 against the normal of 489.3 mm. The countrywide rainfall deficiency now stands at 7%, which is a significant drop of 6% from the previous week. To put things in perspective here is a table that gives you a comparative picture of rainfall amounts recorded last week and a week before that.
Monsoon to weaken
Keeping in mind the forecast of good rains this week the deficiency is likely to drop further by almost 2% but then the drop is expected to get arrested. Our weather models depict Monsoon getting weak by August 13. This break in Monsoon will be of a longer duration - for over a week. No active weather systems are expected during this period, except for the Trough that will shift closer to the foothills and remain confined there. Barring rain along the foothills most parts of the country will witness dry weather conditions during this period. So we can say that poor rains from August 13 till over a week will only arrest the fall in the rainfall deficiency.
Heavy rains in Central India, no rain havoc in Mumbai
However, the current situation points towards a scenario of good rains in the country for almost a week. Central India, followed by East and North India will be the best performing regions. Some of the places may record heavy to very heavy rains including parts of Rajasthan. Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh may once again face flood-like situation. South India, on the other hand, will be on the receiving end with very little rain forecast for Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and also Kerala.
If we talk about Mumbai, the typically heavy Monsoon rain in the city is going to take a back seat. But being a coastal region one or two spells of heavy rain cannot be ruled out either.
The monsoon Trough and the system in the Bay of Bengal will largely be responsible for the rains in the country this week.
Impact on crops
These rains will prove beneficial for paddy and sugarcane crops in states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Odisha, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. However, heavy rains may also lead to waterlogging so it is advised that cotton and soybean farmers take precaution and make proper arrangements for the water to drain from the field. Pulses that is a widely grown crop will also benefit from the rains.
Overall it is going to be a nice week for the country in terms of rain. But the approaching break period in the Monsoon rains from August 12 or 13 raises some alarm as the countrywide rainfall deficiency may rise again during this period.
Image Credits – The Financial Express
Any information taken from here should be credited to Skymet Weather
