This week marks the beginning of the last Monsoon month. The cumulative country-wide rainfall has been average in the last three months with the second half of July and August compensating for the rain parched June.
According to the rainfall data available with Skymet from June 1 - September 1, the country has so far received 716.9 mm of rainfall. Central India was, once again, the chief beneficiary of the rains last week, with a cumulative surplus of 12%. East and North-East India, an otherwise rainy pocket are threatened with a deficiency of 19%.
As accurately predicted by Skymet, Monsoon entered a subdued phase last week with only the central parts of the country experiencing some heavy rainfall. The pan-India total rainfall was below normal the previous week and the least Monsoon activity was observed over the South Peninsula. The same is expected to continue this week.
Monsoon to be Limited to Specific Pockets
Two Monsoon systems are expected to form simultaneously this week. A feeble Low-Pressure area will develop over the western parts of Madhya Pradesh, adjoining Rajasthan which will cause some rainfall over these parts.
The other, stronger Monsoon system, however, will cause intense rains in pockets and is a remnant of the cyclonic storm, Podul which will emerge as a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal. This system will move north-westwards and affect weather conditions over East, Central and North India, extending its influence to Rajasthan and Gujarat. While moving north-westward, the peripheral of this system will cause scattered rainfall over North Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Maharashtra.
Parts of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi NCR will experience heavy to very heavy rainfall in the latter half of the week. The lower parts of Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh will also experience some intense Monsoon activity.
The West Coast which had been lying dormant for some time now will experience widespread moderate showers this week. The South Peninsula will continue to experience the least Monsoon activity with Chennai receiving mostly light rains. No extreme weather event is expected over North-East India.
Moderate Rains in Mumbai
Mumbai, the commercial capital of the country has not experienced any intense Monsoon activity in the last fortnight. Moderate to light showers can be expected over the city this week.
Impact on Crops
Light rains will be beneficial for the crop as most of the crop is at a flower to pod formation stage. Good rains at this stage will result in good yields. But excess rains may destroy the crop at places where soil moisture is already high.