The Southwest Monsoon performed well last week as forecast by Skymet. Good amounts of rain were recorded in parts of East, Central and Northwest India. Kerala and Coastal Karnataka too recorded some heavy rains. And the commercial capital Mumbai had to face the usual Monsoon trouble of deluging rains.
A testimony to the fact is the countrywide rainfall deficiency from June 1 to July 28 dropping to 13% from 18%. So far the country has received 368.9 mm of rain against the cumulative rainfall of 424.1 mm. A drop of 5% in just a week is a significant one. Below is a comparative table of rainfall amounts between last week and the week before it.
This table clearly shows how the deficiency in most of the subdivisions has dropped. Northwest India has proved to be the best performing region with a huge drop of 9% in the rainfall deficiency.
Active monsoon conditions to give heavy rain
Almost similar conditions are likely to prevail this week too due to active Monsoon conditions. In fact, there are chances of better rains across the country. Places in Central India like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be a witness to some really good rains during this period.
Rain will also prevail in Northwest and East India like Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh but the intensity will be moderate.
South India would, however, witness a drop in weather activities. According to our weather models, the extreme southern parts like Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka along with Tamil Nadu and Kerala will record light rain for the entire week.
So barring parts of South India almost the entire country is going to be a witness to some very good rains. There is a high probability of the countrywide rainfall deficiency of 13% dropping further and settling close to 11%.
No extreme event in Mumbai
Talking about Mumbai in particular, the city has been observing very good amounts of rain. In July so far Mumbai has observed a whopping 1359 mm of rain against the monthly normal of 841mm, which is highest in the last five years. Meanwhile, the weather conditions continue to look favourable and the city may observe moderate amounts of rain but monsoon will not be vigorous over Mumbai and suburban regions. Thus we can say that chances of extremely heavy rains will be rare and life will continue in the city as usual. Scenes of traffic jams and waterlogging will not make breaking news for Mumbai.
Impact on crops
Increase in Monsoon activity in terms of rain across the country will prove highly beneficial for the crops in many pockets. Rain in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will provide much-needed relief to crops like Cotton, Soybean and Pulses.
Rain in South Bihar will facilitate sowing of paddy crop, while North Bihar will bear the brunt of Monsoon rains. Almost 12 districts in North Bihar are fighting flood-like conditions. Any amount of heavy rain will destroy several crops in the region so there is a need for the people of the region to be cautious.
Good rains in Uttar Pradesh will be extremely beneficial for the sugarcane crop.
Crops in Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are also in dire need of water. Though no heavy rain is forecast for the region but chances of light rain will help in improving the soil moisture, which in return will be beneficial for the crops.
So overall it is going to be a nice one week of good Southwest Monsoon rains across the country. Unlike the month of June that went almost dry July will end on a positive note. The countrywide rainfall deficiency will also witness a decent drop during this period.
Monsoon to weaken by August 10
After an active phase of Monsoon for over a week, rain in the country will once again take a backseat. According to weather models, India will observe a lull period of Southwest Monsoon for almost two weeks starting August 10. The Southern Peninsula is likely to bear the maximum brunt of the break period.
