Updated on Nov 26, 5:50 PM IST: Storm Rita last night intensified into a Tropical Cyclone. Moreover, the system gained strength and became a Cat 3 Typhoon. However, now the system has been downgraded to a category one storm, while the storm continues to move towards Vanuatu.
As per the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, at 6:19 pm local time of Vanuatu, Rita was 205 km NE of Pentecost, taking a southward track at the speed of 11 kmph. Winds at present near the centre of the storm are packing up to 75 kmph.
Winds gusting up to 80kmph may blow over parts of Torba, Penama, Sanma and Malampa, but will weaken soon. Rains will be heavy in isolated pockets of northern and central islands. However, the possibility of flash floods has been ruled out.
Published on Nov 25, 2:00 PM IST: Between the months of April and November, storms are more known to the Northern Hemisphere. Between January and March, storms do not usually appear in the Indian seas.
Similarly, in the Southern Hemisphere also, storms take a break. Thus, a break period from storms is considered between August and November for the Southern Hemisphere. The fag end of November start seeing some storms. Now, the first storm of the season, Rita has commenced over the Southern Hemisphere. Before this, the region had seen a long break with no storms making appearances.
Presently, Rita is in the close proximity of the Pacific Island nation Vanuatu. Vanuatu has 80 islands in it which stretch up to 1300 km. The Capital Island of this nation is Port Vila, which lies on the Island Efate.
At the moment, the storm is 650 km north northeast of Port Vila in the Pacific Ocean. This storm is moving poleward and is gaining strength. It is likely to become a Cat 1 Typhoon very soon. However, it will not stay very long as a Cat 1 storm. It will stay as a Typhoon for 24 hours, and then weaken into a Tropical Storm, and then it will fizzle under vertical wind shear.
Currently, Rita is in favourable conditions with the wind shear being low, it is drifting poleward, warm temperatures of 29 degrees are present due to which its intensification is on cards. However, thereafter, its further shift will see the storm observing increased wind shear along with which temperatures are also slipping a little.
Within about 3-4 days, the system will dissipate while over the sea as a Cyclone itself. Though it will close in to a chain of islands of Vanuatu. However, any significant weather in terms of strong surface winds and very heavy rains is not envisaged.
When it becomes a Depression, it will be in close proximity of Port Vila and may give some rains. By the time it comes close to Port Vila, it will become a Well Marked Low Pressure Area.
Though, various models are a little at a disagreement, most models are indicating its track towards the same as above. Some models are accelerating its speed while others are stalling it a little.
Image Credit: JTWC