Seasonal outlook for Asia

 

WDs and cool conditions will be frequent in parts of southern Asia this Mar-May, the so called spring season of Asia, but temperatures are likely to remain normal to above-average levels in most parts of China and Turkey as the WDs diminish later in the season.

While the spring is not favorable for tropical activity in Asian waters, there are a couple of areas that need watching.

Winter Slow to retreat from Middle East

WDs will track from Turkey to northern Pakistan and Nepal during March. In fact spells of rain and snow will extend from the Caspian Sea to the Hindu Kush ranges, the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau.
Some of the WDs moving through this track will pick up dust farther south in parts of Syria and Iraq to Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While the WDs track will weaken and shift northwards during April & further north in May, allowing temperatures to reach to seasonal levels, a few rounds of disturbed weather will still occur in these areas with temperature drops.

Wet Start in Central China

Farther to the east, WDs will move along a frontal boundary that frequently stalls across China's Yangtze River Valley. This area in south-central China will end up having frequent spells of rain in April.

Some of these systems affecting the Yangtze Valley will also affect Japan right up to the North China Plains during March. However, these systems will decrease in April, & by May, the region will trend to be drier and warmer than average.
A couple of cold blasts in March will extend from northeastern China to the Korea & then to northern Japan. Despite this, no persistent cold weather spell is forecast from the Koreas to Japan. Normal to above-normal temperatures are likely during the second half of the spring. Rainfall will be almost normal.

In Northeast China, especially Manchuria, few systems will move through during most of the spring season but these systems will have only limited feed of moisture to work with so only limited precipitation will result. Mean precipitation figures will trend to be less than normal as the spring progresses in Manchuria, which will then lead to below-normal precipitation.

As the sea waters warm up a bit later in the spring, more seasonal rainfall may occur in parts of Vietnam during May as one odd tropical disturbance develops. India will be well south of the disturbance track. As a result, much of the country will have a typically dry spring with temperatures remaining normal to above normal.

Arabian Sea, Central Pacific to watch out for Tropical disturbances

Tropical activity is not very common during the spring over most of the Indian Ocean. Cooler-than-normal waters and an unfavorable weather pattern would inhibit tropical development in the Bay of Bengal. However, warmer-than-normal waters in the Arabian Sea from the second half of April through May could allow a tropical system to spiral up.

In the Western Pacific, tropical disturbances do not form very frequently in the spring, as compared to the summer. Moreover, waters are presently cooler than normal from south of Japan to Philippines and are not likely to warm up for much of the spring. These cool waters will tend to suppress any development in Asian region this spring.

Warmer-than-normal waters over the Central Pacific are likely to continue through the spring. The warm water over the Central Pacific combined with the expected weather pattern from climatic models indicate that two to four tropical systems are likely to form.

However, cooler waters closer to Asia will weaken these systems, as they move westwards toward the Philippines, early in the season. As waters warm up in later parts of the spring, one or two tropical disturbances could intensify & reach the Philippines with heavy rain and flooding being the greatest area of concern.