Skymet has been closely monitoring the possibilities of El Nino since the beginning of 2014. The last update on El Nino index concerning Indian monsoon was published on September 26, which reported that El Nino would peak during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. This year monsoon commenced with an El Nino scare and kept evolving throughout the monsoon months, from June to September. Even its mild signatures affected overall monsoon performance and left behind a rain deficiency of 12%.
The phenomenon of abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, which occurs every two to five years, is termed as El Nino. El Nino leads to warming of sea surface temperature (SST) above 0.5°C.
The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average and El Nino is generally declared when ONI is greater than or equal to +0.5°C for overlapping 3 months. Going by latest updates, positive equatorial SST anomalies continue across most parts of the Pacific Ocean. The ONI at present has far exceeded the threshold value but we definitely have to wait for some more time before declaring 2014 an El Nino year.
Equatorial Pacific is divided into four parts Nino 3, Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 1+ 2, for Meteorological analysis. Here’s a look at the surface temperatures since November-
According to weather forecasters across the world, tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm up further. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported that even if an El Nino is established, models suggest that it will be weak or at the most moderate.