A powerful typhoon ‘Kalmaegi’ struck the Philippines as it tracked through its central parts. The storm swirled over the Philippine Sea and raced across the densely populated regions of the country. The cyclone has battered the Philippines with catastrophic damage, claiming 90 lives and leaving dozens missing. Flash floods wrecked many areas, inflicting severe infrastructural damage. To make things worse, an Air Force helicopter crashed while on a relief mission to storm-battered regions. Sadly, all six personnel on board went down with the chopper.

Satellite Image, Courtesy: CIMSS

The typhoon is now entering the warmer waters of the South China Sea and therefore becoming stronger. The good news is that as the storm nears the Vietnam coast, the sea surface temperatures are dropping significantly—from the earlier 30s to the mid-20s by late tomorrow. Lowering of heat potential and proximity to terrain will weaken the storm from Category 3 equivalent to Category 2 and further down to Category 1 hurricane strength. However, the weakening of the storm before landfall should not be construed as a reason to lower the guard. Rather, readiness levels need to be improved further until the danger has fully passed.

Satellite Image, Courtesy: CIMSS

The typhoon is centered about 450 km east of Song Tu Tay Island. Maximum winds near the eye are around 150 km/h, with gusts exceeding 200 km/h. The typhoon is expected to hit Vietnam sometime tomorrow evening. Kalmaegi’s wide circulation could trigger severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and gale-speed winds before and during landfall. Rains will gradually ease out from Saturday as it heads towards Thailand. The typhoon will track along Vietnam and Laos before entering Thailand as a dangerous storm.

The storm will weaken significantly while crossing the vast landmass of Thailand and enter Myanmar as a depression. The remnants of the system will emerge over the east-central Bay of Bengal late on November 8 or early hours of November 9. It is expected to merge with the pre-existing cyclonic circulation over that area. As the predictability of models degrades with a lead time of about five days, further prospects of the system will be kept under observation and shared appropriately.

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