New Delhi, With temperatures projected to rise by 4.6 °C over pre-industrial times by 2200, 10 monsoon failures are expected in the next 50 years with daily rainfall of only about 3 mm which is about half of the normal 6 to 7 mm.
This rise is above the global target to keep the warming below 2°C post pre-industrial times to avoid dangerous possibilities of more droughts, floods and rising sea level. But as the emissions are rising globally the 2°C target is becoming increasingly harder to achieve.
Higher temperatures would vapourise more water from the Ocean to increase rains in many areas. Such shift in temperatures and rainfall would disrupt air flow known as the Pacific Walker Circulation which helps to derive the monsoon usually by bringing high pressure to the western Indian Ocean.
In long duration, El Nino effect which warms waters in the eastern Pacific with the Walker pattern shift eastwards, bringing high pressure area over India and this pattern would suppress the monsoon.
The monsoon rains could collapse about every fifth year between 2150 and 2200 with continued global warming. The monsoon in India lasts from June to September and is vital for India's 1.2 billion farmers growing crops such as rice, wheat and corn.
