A cyclonic circulation is marked over the northwest Bay of Bengal, off the Odisha coast. Under its influence, a low-pressure area will likely form in the next 24 hours over the northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal. The system may become stronger and well-marked in the subsequent 12-24 hours over the same area. Active to vigorous monsoon conditions are likely over the eastern and central regions of the country.
The cloud mass associated with the existing cyclonic circulation has already reached the coastline of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, Light to moderate rains have also commenced along the shore and are likely to intensify. After consolidation of circulation, a low-pressure area will form, supported by upper air circulation. The east-west oriented shear zone running along about 20°N will aid the strengthening of system further. The low pressure will cross the coastline and move inland on the 20th of July. The sphere of activity will expand and stretch to cover central parts of the country.
To start with, South Coastal Odisha, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Chhattisgarh and eastern parts of Telangana will have moderate to heavy rainfall today. The intense weather zone will extend further to cover more parts of Telangana and Vidarbha region on 19th July. As the low pressure moves further, heavy rains and thundershowers are expected over parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada and Chhattisgarh on 20th July.
Formation of the low pressure will strengthen the monsoon stream from the Arabian Sea, along the Konkan Coast. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Konkan, including Mumbai, for the next 4-5 days. Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over South Gujarat, North Madhya Maharashtra, Southwest Madhya Pradesh and South Rajasthan between 21st and 25th July. Rains could be heavier to disrupt connectivity and flood the low-lying areas, during this period.