Meteorological conditions are getting aligned for commencement of withdrawal from some parts of Northwest India, very soon. Dry weather conditions have prevailed over West and North Rajasthan and adjoining parts of Haryana and Punjab. No weather activity has occurred over Jaisalmer, Barmer, Phalodi, Jodhpur, Bikaner, Ganganagar, Fazilka, Faridkot, Firozpur and Churu for the last 5 days. Mercury has been on the rise with a highest maximum temperature of 38.7°C at Pilani, yesterday. Churu and Ganganagar hovered around 38°C.
Withdrawal of monsoon needs few parameters to fall in place and observed for continuity for 5days or more. The presence of anticyclone, changing the wind pattern over Rajasthan, is the first and foremost requirement. Additionally, cessation of rains, persistent sunshine, rising mercury levels, sizeable reduction in humidity as inferred from water vapour satellite images and the feel of mild chill late in the night and early morning become the other precursors to initiate withdrawal process.
The normal date of commencement of withdrawal from the last posts of Rajasthan was revised to 17thSep in 2020, from its earlier schedule of 01stSep. The entire process has large variability but the withdrawal was noticed to commence invariably after 10thSep. Since 2005, the earliest withdrawal commenced on 02ndSep that year and later on 04thSep in 2015. The latest withdrawal was on 09thOct in 2019 and closely followed on 06thOct, last year.
Southwest Monsoon 2022 is expected to commence withdrawal from extreme western parts of Rajasthan and Southwest Punjab and Haryana in the next 2-3 days. Withdrawal process is never a linear progression and is invariably marred with hops and jumps. Normal date of withdrawal from the national capital is 25thSep and may breach by few days this season. The exercise of withdrawal from the country is complete between 15th and 20thOctober. Occasionally, it may coincide with simultaneous arrival of Northeast Monsoon over South India, as it happened last year on 24thOctober. Withdrawal of monsoon from a certain area may not be construed as total absence of rains and clouds, thereafter. Short interruptions with quick restoration of ‘back to normal’, need to be accepted as a part of process.