New Delhi, Tuesday, July 31 An expected 50% below the normal rainfall over Northwest region, a 30%-40% less rainfall expected over interior Maharashtra and Karnataka and a negative side of the normal rainfall expected over east and northeast India during the months of August and September will raise serious concerns of El Nino impacting the monsoon this year.
Rainfall will be as deficient as 50% below the normal or scanty over Saurashtra, Kutch, west Rajasthan, Haryana, west Punjab and interior parts of Tamil Nadu during this period, while showers are likely to be as scanty as 30%-40% over interior Maharashtra and Karnataka. Rainfall is expected to remain close to the normal over Vidarbha, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during August and September. As east and northeast India are also predicted to remain on the negative side of the normal rain, between 10%-20% during these months, the fear of an El Nino is gripping India as well as in the entire the Southeast Asia.
In an El Nino condition, the sea surface temperatures over western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean
cool down and become below normal. Due to this phenomenon, any depression or a cyclonic storm fails to develop on either side of the Indian Peninsula in the Arabian Sea as well as in the Bay of Bengal.
The low pressure area, which normally forms over north Bay of Bengal does not gain strength and is unable to penetrate northwest India. Rainfall due to this system remains confined up to east and central India.
Due to this reason, rain is likely to be near normal over central, west coast, east and northeast India during the next two months. But, now an evolving El Nino is expected to turn positive, which will adversely affect the overall chances of rain over the entire country.
