New Delhi, Friday June 23 The India Meteorological Department (IMD) 
took out the second monsoon outlook today for the 2012 southwest monsoon rainfall. The India Meteorological Department’s latest forecast puts monsoon rainfall during 2012 to be mostly normal.
Normal rainfall is a range of 96-104% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of seasonal rainfall in India is 89 cm for the period of 1951-2000. The model error of the monsoon forecast is ± 5%. So, if the model error is also counted then rainfall is expected to be within 91-109% of the LPA.
The India Meteorological Department’s latest outlook thus is largely on the positive side, ignoring any threat from an evolving El Nino or the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Global weather models are portraying clear signs of development of an El Nino while the IOD is in a negative phase.
