As per the analysis of historical data, whenever Monsoon is between 90%-100%, around 61% district of Gujarat has more than 60% possibility of being in drought.
This means Ahmedabad, Anand, Banaskantha, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Botad, Gandhinagar, Jamnagar, Junagarh, Kachchh, Kheda, Mahesana, Marvi, Narmada, Porbandar, Rajkot, Surat, Surendranagar, Tapi and Vadodara have more than 60% chances of being in drought.
Gujarat is one of the largest producer of Cotton, Groundnut, Castor and Sesame. Gujarat is characterized by variations in the topography and wide variations in annual rainfall. Gujarat has only 2% of the country’s water resources. The total water availability in the state is 50 BCM, of which surface accounts for 38 BCM and ground water accounts for the balance 12 BCM. Out of 38 BCM of surface water, more than 80% is being used for irrigation purposes.
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The state can be divided into four distinct units on the basis of water resources endowment namely Kutchh, North Gujarat, South & Central Gujarat and Saurashtra. Kutchh is an arid zone, with scanty rainfall and no perennial rivers. North Gujarat area has rechargeable aquifer but rainfall in this region is very less while ground withdrawal is very high due to excessive irrigation and industrial water demand.
South and Central Gujarat are heavily agricultural and industrial areas. The over use of chemical fertilizers and industrial waste have polluted the ground water. Meanwhile, Saurashtra region comprises of rocky formation and has very low recharging capacity. So, the ground water replenishment is very low.
Narmada canal network has provided access to water for irrigation to many districts of Gujarat such as Banaskantha, Patan, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Botad, Bhavnagar, Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Gandhinagar. This has reduced their dependency on Monsoon rains for the agriculture to some extent.
As per the forecast by Skymet Weather, this year, Gujarat is going to record normal rains in the month of June. However, rains may remain deficient in the month of July, August and September and that may have an adverse impact on the crops of rain-fed areas.
Gujarat is the second largest producer of cotton with 26.77 lakh hectares of land under cotton cultivation. Sowing has not yet started but is likely to start with Monsoon showers over Gujarat.
Normal Monsoon rains in Gujarat will help in timely sowing of Cotton. Thereafter, with rains decreasing during the the vegetative and boll formation stage may have an adverse impact on the cotton crop.
Groundnut cultivation is done in 14.246 lakh hectares of land. Groundnut sowing has not yet started in the state. Groundnut is also a water intensive crop. Again, dry weather in the July, August and September may have an adverse impact on the crop.
Gujarat produces Castor in over 7.370 lakh hectare of land. Castor sowing is expected to start in the first week of July.
Image credit: Bilkul Online
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
