While excess winter rain has laid the ground for a bigger wheat harvest, return of El – Nino towards the middle of the year can trigger droughts in some parts of the world while causing flooding in others, affecting production of many key food crops.
El – Nino is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and the US Climate Prediction Center have warned of increased chances of a El – Nino this year. Recently the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization also stressed on the "enhanced possibility" of a El - Nino by the middle of 2014. However, the intensity and severity of El - Nino and the effect on monsoon in India and the world is still being debated.
El Nino and the monsoon in India are inversely related. 60% of all droughts in India in the last 130 years have been El - Nino droughts. Earlier in January 2014, observations at Skymet indicated that 2014 could be an El - Nino year. Therefore indicating towards a lesser chance of excess rain and higher chance of below normal rainfall in India.
Monsoon in India are key to agricultural production and a strong El Nino could hamper the production of sugar and rice. "If a strong El Nino occurs during the second half of the monsoon season, it could impact the production size of summer crops," said Sudhir Panwar, president of farmers' lobby group Kishan Jagriti Manch.
Meanwhile, experts claim drought inducing El – Nino could adversely affect the production of wheat in Australia as well as the agriculture in Asian countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines and China, the highest producers of rice in the world.
