Delhi, Tuesday, July 10 The monsoon is currently active over west Madhya Pradesh, adjoining Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. A well-marked low pressure has also formed over northwest Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan to support the monsoon further in these parts.
The weather system will move in a northeast direction and dispense rains over east Rajasthan during the next twenty four hours. The active rain belt will shift towards west central Uttar Pradesh gradually after that.
A trough is presently extending from northwest Rajasthan to east central Bay of Bengal across north Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. Rainfall is expected along this area. But this trough is likely to shift north and so will the rainfall.
Troughs are places where winds from opposing directions meet (or winds turn) and atmospheric pressure is low while the turbulence caused by such interaction (or turning) leads to rain, thundershowers and storms.
The trough in question though is a yearly phenomenon and called the axis of monsoon trough. Its position destines rainfall across the northern plains and central peninsula.
This axis of monsoon trough is expected to oscillate north towards the Himalayan foothills in the next couple of days. Heavy rains are possible in this region while moderate rain over adjoining Uttar Pradesh during this period. Central Uttar Pradesh is also likely to be under the ambit of rainfall as the trough moves up massing through the region.
A cyclonic circulation (genesis of a low pressure) is seen over Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh, likely to intensify, leading to enhanced rain activity over east India.
The off shore trough on the west coast extends from coastal Gujarat to Kerala and will be responsible for sustained rains here.
West Rajasthan will be devoid of rain but Tamil Nadu might get scattered rain/thunder showers during the next two days. A trough running along the east coast from Andhra Pradesh to south Tamil Nadu would facilitate the precipitation.
