According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon 2016 is likely to remain above than the normal at 105% (with an error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:
• 20% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 35% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 30% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 10% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 5% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June – 90% of LPA (LPA for June = 164 mm)
• 50% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 30% chance of below normal
July – 105% of LPA (LPA for July= 289 mm)
• 60% chance of normal
• 25% chance of above normal
• 15% chance of below normal
August – 108% of LPA (LPA for August = 261 mm)
• 60% chance of normal
• 30% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
September – 115% of LPA (LPA for September = 173 mm)
• 50% chance of normal
• 40% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
To download Skymet Weather's Monsoon Foreshadow report, click here
