Cyclone Kyant now a well-marked low pressure area only
As reiterated by Skymet Weather, Cyclone Kyant in west-central Bay of Bengal continues to lose its strength. After weakening into a depression on Thursday late evening, the weather system has further weakened into a well-marked low pressure area on Friday morning.
Weathermen predict that system will continue to move west-southwest direction and will gradually lose more strength.
The weather system is likely to cross South Andhra Pradesh coast on Friday as a feeble low pressure area only.
In wake of this, moderate to strong winds with the speed of 35-45 kmph gusting upto 50 kmph will be witnessed along the coast. Despite system’s weakening, sea conditions will remain rough and fishermen are still advised not venture out in the sea.
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers with isolated heavy spell are likely to lash the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Cyclone Kyant weakens into depression
After weakening into a deep depression, Cyclone Kyant has further weakened into depression. The system has been moving in west-southward direction.
According to Skymet Weather, the system will continue to weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours.
Cyclone Kyant weakens into deep depression
As predicted by Skymet Weather, the cyclonic storm Kyant in west-central Bay of Bengal has weakened into a deep depression.
Kyant was the first cyclone of the season to develop in the Indian Sea. It had retained the strength of the cyclonic storm for around 48 hours.
The system continues to move in west-southwest direction and is presently centered at 15.7ºN and 85.5ºE, around 310 km southeast of Visakhapatnam, 470 km east of Machilipatnam and 595 km east-northeast of Nellore.
Further, the system will continue to move in the similar direction and simultaneously weakening as well. By Thursday evening, we expect deep depression to weaken into a depression.
Skymet Weather predicts that the system is likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast as a depression or a low pressure area only.
Though the weather system has weakened but it still has potential to trigger squally winds along the Andhra Pradesh coast with the speed of 35-45 kmph gusting up to 55 kmph during the next 24 hours.
Cyclone Kyant to weaken before landfall
Cyclonic storm Kyant over Central Bay of Bengal continues to move in west-southwestward direction and has also retained its strength.
Moving at a speed of 18 kmph, the system is now centered at 16.3°N and 87°E, around 390 km southeast of Gopalpur, 440 km eastsoutheast of Visakhapatnam and 610 km eastnortheast of Machilipatnam.
Though system is likely to gain some more strength for another few hours, but it will start show signs of weakening soon.
According to Skymet Weather, Kyant will soon move out of favourable weather conditions as vertical wind shear will increase, which will not allow to strengthen.
Besides this, the system will also interact with dry winds, not providing it enough moisture to intensify further.
Thus, meteorologists predict that by the time of landfall, the system will weaken significantly and may hit the Indian coast as a deep depression or depression only.
The system is most likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast, somewhere between Ongole and Nellore.
However, as Kyant nears the coast on Thursday, we can expect squally winds with the speed of 40-50 kmph gusting up to 65 kmph along the coast of South Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
Sea conditions will remain rough to very rough and fishermen are advised from not venturing out in the seas.
Cyclone Kyant moves further in Central Bay of Bengal
Retaining its strength, Cyclonic Storm Kyant has moved further in west-southwest direction during the last six hours and now lies in central Bay of Bengal.
Moving at a speed of 19 kmph, it is presently centered at 16.6°N and 88.5°E, about 480 km southeast of Gopalpur, 580 km eastsoutheast of Vishakhapatnam and 800 km eastnortheast of Machilipatnam.
As reiterated by Skymet Weather, the system is expected to intensify further during the next 24 hours as it will continue to move in warm sea surface temperatures.
Kyant is most likely to track the same route in westsouthwest direction towards westcentral Bay of Bengal during the next 48 to 72 hours.
Following is the expected track of the Cyclone Kyant that will give a much clearer picture:
Cyclone Kyant to intensify further during next 24 hours
During the last six hours, the cyclonic storm Kyant has moved further in west-southwest direction at a speed of 14 kmph.
The system is presently centered at 16.6°N and 89°E, about 530 km east-southeast of Gopalpur, 610 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 850 km east-northeast of Machilipatnam.
According to Skymet Weather, Kyant is likely to gain more strength during the next 24 hours as it will continue to move in Bay of Bengal in west-southwest direction.
By Friday, the system will start losing its strength due to the increase in vertical wind shear and incursion of dry winds from North.
However, Kyant is likely to weaken significantly before hitting the coast, predict meteorologists. By the time it makes landfall over Andhra Pradesh coast, somewhere between Ongole and Nellore, it would sustain strength of either a deep depression or depression only.
In spite of this, squally winds along with moderate to heavy showers are likely to lash several parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Fishermen are advised against venturing out in the sea due to rough sea conditions.
Cyclone Kyant to intensify further in Bay of Bengal
Sustaining its strength, Cyclone Kyant in east-central Bay of Bengal has moved further west-northwestwards in the span of the last six hours.
The system is moving at speed of 15 kmph and is presently centered at 17.1°N and 90.9°E, about 640 km northnorthwest of Port Blair, around 670 km southsoutheast of Gopalpur (Odisha) and 815 km east of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh).
Kyant is now expected to shift westwards and thereafter re-curve west-southwestwards towards southwest Bay of Bengal by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
As reiterated by Skymet Weather, the cyclonic system will continue to move in favourable environment for another 24 to 48 hours. Warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear in the order of 5 to 10 knots will continue to further strengthen the cyclonic storm.
Let us have a look at the possible track of the Cyclonic Storm Kyant in the coming days.
Cyclone Kyant to intensify further in Bay of Bengal
There has been no change in the position of Tropical Cyclone Kyant during the last 6 hours. According to Skymet Weather, it will continue to move in favourable environment for another two days. Warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear in the order of 5 to 10 knots will continue to further strengthen the cyclonic storm.
At present, the system is tracking along the southern periphery of subtropical ridge to the north.
Kyant will continue in west direction and gradual intensification is expected for the next 24 hours. By the late night hours of October 27, Kyant is likely to change direction and would start moving in a southwest direction.
However, as per the meteorologists, Kyant will start weakening gradually October 28 onwards. It is likely to make landfall as week weather system. This will be due to the incursion of dry air from north and increase in vertical wind shear.
Season’s first Cyclone Kyant develops in Bay of Bengal
The deep depression over east-central Bay of Bengal has finally intensified into a cyclone. Named as Cyclone Kyant, it is the first cyclone of the season to develop in Bay of Bengal.
It is presently centered at 17°N and 91.2°E, about 620 km northnorthwest of Port Blair, around 710 km southsoutheast of Gopalpur and 850 km east of Vishakhapatnam.
The system will continue to move into west-northwest direction. Thereafter, it will shift westwards and thereafter re-curve west-southwestwards towards southwest Bay of Bengal by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Deep depression to intensify into Cyclone Kyant today
The deep depression over east-central Bay of Bengal has moved west-southwestwards. Today at 5:30 am it was near Latitude 16.9°N and long 91.7°E about 540 km north-northwest of Port Blair and 470 km west-southwest of Yangon. The system will become a cyclonic storm by today afternoon.
The system is expected to continue to move west-northwest for another few hours. Thereafter, it will start moving in a west-southwest direction towards the Odisha coast. Now, sea surface temperatures over central parts of Bay of Bengal are warmer which will enhance the intensification of the weather system.
Initially, vertical wind shear was in the order of 20-25 knots. Now, it has decreased to 10-15 knots which will further relax as the system will move west of the current position. So, it is fair to say that there are good chances of the intensification of this system.
Winds in the order of 45-55 kmph gusting up to 65-70 kmph are expected over the Odisha coast. Sea will remain rough to very rough. People are advised to avoid venturing into the sea from October 27 to 29.
Cyclone Threat looms large over East Coast
According to the latest reports the deep depression over the Bay of Bengal is presently situated over 16.5°N and 93.2°E. This position is marked as “x” in the attached Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map estimated using the available altimeter observations.
An anticyclonic eddy can be seen on the path of possible cyclone. The warmer water is present over north-west direction which is known to provide more thermal energy to the cyclones. This anticyclonic eddy is likely result in (1) facilitating the movement of the depression towards it, ie. in the northwest direction and (2) in further intensifying it.
As this deep depression is already expected to move in a northwest direction towards the warm water which is shown in the image below.
The warm sea waters will intensify the deep depression and more over the vertical wind shear is also decreasing which will not hinder its intensification. Therefore there are good chances of this deep depression will form into a Cyclonic storm by tomorrow morning.
Cyclone Threat looms large over East Coast
The deep depression over east-central Bay of Bengal which was moving in an east-northeasterly direction has started to move in a northerly direction during past six hours with a speed of 8 km/h.
Today, at 5:30 am, it was near Latitude 16.4°N and Longitude 93.2°E about 520 km north-northeast of Port Blair and 310 km west-southwest of Yangon.
The system is expected to intensify into a cyclone named Kyant shortly. The system will continue to move in a northerly direction for some time.
Thereafter, it will recurve and initially move in a north-northwest direction and then move to the northwest towards Northwest Bay of Bengal.
The system is expected to travel in relatively warmer seas. Vertical wind shear will also start decreasing which will help the intensification of the system into a cyclonic storm.
By October 28, the storm will reach the Indian Coast. Various models are suggesting different areas of landfall. The most probable landfall is likely to be over the Odisha coast.
Deep Depression forms over Bay, Cyclone to form soon
With favorable weather conditions in place the depression over Bay of Bengal has strengthened into a deep depression. The weather system is likely to skid past the coast of Myanmar by tonight or early morning gaining strength from the decreasing low wind shear ultimately forming into a cyclonic storm.
After skidding past the Myanmar coast, the system will initially move in a north-northwesterly direction, and then move in a northwesterly direction marching towards Indian landmass. The warm sea temperature and further decrease in wind shear will provide the weather system to take more rigorous shape. The expected cyclone is likely to hit northern Odisha coast on October 28.
As of now the places like Labutta, Mawdin, Yatopa, Kwinvet and Kanni will receive heavy rainfall in Myanmar. Ngwe-hsaung will receive heavy to very heavy rainfall resulting flood like situation to form.
As the weather system is expected to become vigorous we are keeping a stern check on its developments. Keep a track on Skymet Weather for the latest developments on the Cyclone.
Depression in Bay of Bengal to intensify soon, season’s first cyclone likely
Sustaining its strength, the depression over east-central Bay of Bengal continued to move in east-northeast direction during the last 24 hours.
The system is presently moving at a speed of 11 kmph and is centered at 15.5ºN and 93.0ºE, around 420 km north of Port Blair and about 360 km west-southwest of Yangon.
Weather conditions are favourable for its intensification into a deep depression during next 24 hours and thereafter into a cyclone. If this happens, it will be the first cyclone storm of the season to develop in Indian Sea.
The system will continue to give moderate rain and thundershowers over several places of Andaman and Nicobar. Squally winds with speed of 45 kmph to 55 kmph gusting up to 65 kmph can also be witnessed over the region. Scattered showers will also be seen over coastal parts of Tamil Nadu.
Sea conditions are also rough and fishermen are advised from venturing out in the sea. According to Skymet Weather, rains will reduce gradually once the depression moves away from the region.
Now, the depression will move northeastwards and is likely to shift closer to the coast of North Myanmar by Sunday evening.
However, forecasters are predicting that the system will then recurve in north-northwest direction to Northwest Bay of Bengal, skirting the Myanmar coast.
Depression in Bay of Bengal retains strength, season's first cyclone likely
The depression over east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal continues to retain its strength. During the past six hours, the system has moved in east-northeast direction at a speed of 8 kmph.
It is presently centered at 14°N and 90.5°E, around 360 km northwest of Port Blair, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and 680 km southwest of Yangon, (Myanmar).
In wake of this, moderate to heavy showers will continue to lash Andaman and Nicobar Islands, particularly the northern parts. Coastal Tamil Nadu will also receive scattered rains an thundershowers.
According to Skymet Weather, the cloud configuration and weather conditions are favourable for the further intensification of the system and it is likely to strengthen into a deep depression during the next 24 hours.
The system has a potential of churning into a cyclonic storm during the subsequent 24 hours.
The system will continue to move in east-northeast direction and will move close to the North Myanmar coast by evening or night of October 23.
Weather models are also indicating that the system may re-curve initially north-northwestwards skipping the Myanmar coast and then move northwestwards in west-central Bay of Bengal.
October is the favourable month for the formation of depression and cyclones in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. However, till now we have not seen formation of any intense weather system in any of Indian Sea. Though, one after another cyclonic circulations have developed in Bay of Bengal but none of them have intensified into a low pressure area.
Now, the well-marked low pressure area prevailing in the east-central Bay of Bengal for the last couple of days has intensified into a depression. It is also likely to further intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours.
Thereafter, the system may gain more strength and further intensify into a cyclone. If this happens then it will be the first cyclone of 2016 developing in Indian Sea and named as 'Kyant'.
As per the meteorologists, the system is still left with long sea travel which will aid the formation of the cyclonic storm in Bay of Bengal.
Till then, the system is expected to move in north-northeasterly direction, shifting away from Indian coastline. Weathermen predict that it is most likely to move towards Myanmar coast. But this will only happen by October 24 or October 25.
However, few weather models are also giving an indication that it may travel towards East Bangladesh.
As of now, the system presently seen as depression will give heavy to very heavy rainfall over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the intensity of rains will decrease as the system moves far away.
By Sunday, the potential cyclone will also start giving good rains over parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Tripura and Bangladesh.
Image credit: gradestack.com
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