Dear Delhiites! Whenever you have been experiencing sudden chill during early mornings and evenings in October, refrain from declaring the onset of winter in the middle of the month!
As the weekend nears, mornings in Delhi become pleasantly cold for an effortless morning walk for health. Delhi’s minimum temperature reaches 15ºC, a sharp decline from 21.8 ºC recorded on 14th October. In last ten years, the national capital has only touched 15ºC towards the end of the month as compared to the middle of the month observed during this year.
Minimum temperatures in last few years
| Year | Temperature | Date in Oct. |
| 2005 | 13.7 | 31 |
| 2006 | 16.3 | 31 |
| 2007 | 14.5 | 30 |
| 2008 | 16.4 | 20 |
| 2009 | 13.5 | 26 |
The early snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir and heavy rain in parts of Uttar Pradesh has nothing to do with an indication of the arrival of winter. This is just thanks to certain weather disturbances causing unseasonal climatic conditions in parts of India.
“Climatologically, October is not a winter month. For winters to set in, maximum temperatures have to be in mid 20s and minimums have to settle around 15 degrees”, says G.P. Sharma, Vice President, Meteorology, Skymet Meteorology Division in India.
October undergoes an intermittent period as it witnesses the transition of Southwest Monsoon into Northeast Monsoon. Therefore, the variation in temperature is high, leading to warm days and pleasant evenings. Yet, this pleasant weather does not signal winters.
Weekly change in temperature in October
Normally, the first week of October witnesses maximum temperature of mid 30s and minimum of mid 20s. The temperature chart for the following weeks is
1st week – Mid 30s / Mid 20s
2nd week – Mid 30s / Low 20s
3rd week – Low 30s / Below 20s
4th week – Around 30º / Around 15º
Clearly, October shows no signs of winter season as for winters to be here, the maximum and minimum temperatures must drift between mid-20s and below 15 degrees respectively.
However, from the beginning of October, national capital Delhi, parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat have been witnessing uncomfortable weather as maximums have consistently remained above normal.
For instance, observatory at Palam, Delhi has been recording temperatures which were 4 degrees above normal. On Sunday, the maximum temperature settled at 38.8°C, which was highest in last ten years for this month.
Rajasthan too continued to reel under hot weather conditions, as the maximum temperatures surged closer to 40°C in the several cities including Churu, Bikaner, Jodhpur and Barmer.
The high temperatures, which are above normal, also made the situation grim in parts of Gujarat where Baroda, Idar, Kandla and Surat observed maximums above 35°C.
Though minimums have dropped marginally in last few days in Delhi, winter is yet far away. Delhi observed minimums of 16.2ºC, 19.6ºC, 21.8ºC, 18.6ºC on 16th, 15th, 14th and 13th October respectively.
Factors leading to sudden chill
After Southwest monsoon withdraws, parts of North India and Central India come under the influence of western disturbances that moves towards east from west. The disturbance results in light to moderate rain in Delhi and hilly states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It leads to snow in Jammu and Kashmir area, as has been experienced this year on 8th October.
Additionally, persistent northwesterly winds from the hills of Jammu and Kashmir and the position of the sun having moved towards the south usually makes the days colder than before.
Uttar Pradesh, on the other hand, faces the brunt of inclement climatic conditions due to its location. Even though it stays away from the effect of western disturbances being in the east, it often experiences the change due to winds coming down the slope from the foothills of Himalayas.
Moreover, it has been experiencing unseasonal rain since last year, during this period, due to severe cyclonic storms forming in the Gulf of Siam. Cyclonic storm Phailin last year and Cyclonic storm Hudhud this year have caused heavy rain in East U.P. including Gorakhpur and Bahraich.
Outlook for October
Even as people look forward to the delightful festival of Diwali, the mercury is expected to go below 20 degrees in North India including Delhi. Surely, people can experience pleasant days ahead that will set the pace for winter's arrival.
Image Credit: dailymail.co.uk
