The core Monsoon season came to an end with the beginning of September. June had ended with above normal rains to the tune of 16%. Click here to read more.
Unfortunately, July consumed all the surplus rainfall left over by June and recorded 17% less rains than the long period average (LPA). August followed suit and ended with a rainfall deficiency of over 20% for the month.
We have now entered the last week of Monsoon. The country wide cumulative rainfall deficiency has come down to 12%, in view of heavy showers in most parts of the country during last couple of days. The coming week will be dominated by the low pressure area over East India and an active Western Disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir. After about seven days, a cyclonic circulation will come up over the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay of Bengal.
North India
The Western Disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall across Jammu and Kashmir. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will also receive some rains during next 48 hours.
The plains of North India will see further retreat of Southwest Monsoon. We could already see the requisite features for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon prevailing over Punjab, Hrayana and Delhi. Clear skies will lead to rise in temperatures after about 24 hours. Wind pattern will gradually change to dry northwesterlies.
East and Northeast India
East India will receive scattered rains for the first 2 days of the week. Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal will receive Monsoon showers in view of the low pressure area over Northeast India.
Northeastern states will continue to receive Monsoon rains till September 25. Assam and Meghalaya could witness few heavy spells. Thereafter, intensity of rainfall will ease out a little.
Central India
Southwest Monsoon will withdraw completely from Central India as well. During the first half of the week, some rainfall could still be observed over southern parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha. However, rainfall will be isolated and light.
South Peninsula
There is a feeble trough along the Tamil Nadu coast and a low level cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area. Both the systems will bring some rain over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala for the next 3 days. During the second half of the week, intensity of rainfall will decrease over Peninsular India.
Monsoon 2015 will wind up on a deficit note. East and Northeast will be the best performing subdivision. It will be followed by Central and South India. Northwest India will be the worst performing subdivision in terms of Monsoon rains. All the four subdivisions will invariably end up with rainfall deficiency of less than 20%.
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