As reiterated by Skymet Weather, weather conditions are favourable for deep depression to further intensify into the first cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal.
Cloud configuration is indicating that the system is gaining strength rapidly and likely to concentrate into the cyclone during the next 24-48 hours.
At present, the system is centered at Latitude 13.3°N and Longitude 81°E, around 170 km south-southeast Nellore, Andhra Pradesh.
In wake of this, coastal areas of Tamil Nadu including Chennai and Andhra Pradesh have been put on alert against the inclement weather conditions during the next 48 hours.
Skymet Weather predicts that though the weather system will intensify into a cyclone but it is not likely to make a landfall over Indian East Coast. We expect system to skirt away from the East Coast and finally make landfall over Bangladesh.
However, it is posing a definite threat to the coastal parts of North Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal during the next two days as heavy rain is possible.
According to weathermen, the core of the system will remain in the sea but its peripherals will be covering large areas of the Indian coastal states. Thus, we can expect intense rain and thundershowers along with damaging winds of speed 50-60 kmph gusting up to 80 kmph.
Reasons for intensification of system
There are several factors required for the intensification of any weather system into a possible cyclonic storm. At present, the deep depression has all the required characteristics for strengthening into a cyclone.
Increasing distance from the coast: Till now system was moving in north direction towards the coast. However, it is now likely to recurve and shift in northeast direction, drifting slightly away from the coast.
According to Skymet Weather, the more a weather systems remain over the sea, the more strength it gains. It will continue to move parallel to the mainland and will keep impacting the weather.
Warm sea surface temperatures: At present, sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm which would further enhance the intensification of the system.
Decreasing wind shear: Lighter the wind shear, conducive it is for the intensification of the system.
Transition from equatorial region to tropical region: This transition from equatorial region to tropical region have increased the dynamical forces exponentially, boosting the growth and sustainability of the weather system.
Huge sea travel: As the system is likely to head towards Bangladesh, there is a long way for the weather system to travel. The source of the energy for the weather system is the water. The longer any system travels over the sea, the chances of sustainability also increases.
