Updated on December 15, 2015 4:00 PM (IST): El Nino crushes hopes of White Christmas for two-thirds of US
First of all, a white Christmas means about an inch or more of snow on the ground on December 25. The existing weather pattern in about two-thirds of US suggests that a white Christmas could be a distant dream this year.
With less than two weeks to go until December 25, many places that generally witness a white Christmas Day will miss out this time. Most of the East Coast I-95 cities have very little chances of seeing snow on Christmas Day. Meteorologists believe that there will not be cold air to support accumulating snow. The recently witnessed warm weather across the Eastern states has broken age-old temperature records.
It is believed that a mild weather pattern and warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures are responsible for absence of snow cover right from Washington, D.C., to Boston. Even if small amounts of snowfall are observed before Christmas, it will not stick around. The warm ground will lead to melting of the snow very quickly.
A very strong El Niño has helped in strengthening a west to east jet stream. This has been responsible for mild Pacific air across the United States.
Updated on December 7, 2015 5:00 PM (IST): El Nino responsible for Eastern US Snow Drought
El Nino is expected to funnel mild air into Eastern US in the beginning of 2016. Accordingly, the snow drought will continue in the major East Coast cities. Meanwhile, the Western states will have an abundance of snow. This could be attributed to a strong Pacific jet stream, which will continue to provide moisture-laden storms into the Western states early next year.
This November, the Eastern states have witnessed unusually warm weather. This trend is likely to continue till the beginning of 2016.
El Nino years are known to produce a lower-than-average snowfall in most parts of the Northeast US. On December 4, 2015 Buffalo in New York set broke a 116-year-old record of not accumulating snow so late in the season. Now a new record will be set each day that Buffalo does not observe accumulating snow.
Updated on December 3, 2015 1:00 PM (IST): El Nino to bring mild weather in US
This winter, El Nino will bring mild weather conditions across much of central and eastern United States. El Nino is a weather phenomenon which occurs when tropical Pacific waters are warmer than normal. This pattern generally lasts for several months to a couple of years and the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean impact weather patterns across much of the globe.
This pattern generally does not bring good news for cold weather enthusiasts. It’s a known fact that El Nino this year is strong enough (in fact one of the strongest) to keep the arctic air out of most parts of the United States.
Weather experts are seeing impressive signals that the prevailing mild pattern in the Central and Eastern US states will hold through December and into January. El Nino is being held responsible for circulating westerly winds across Canada. These winds will keep the polar vortex strong but confined near the Arctic Circle.
Also read, What is a Polar Vortex
So here we are not saying that every day will be mild and snow-free in the Central and Eastern U.S. It simply means that cold and snowy days will not be very frequent.
Updated on November 24, 2015 6:00 PM (IST): Godzilla El Nino as strong as 1997 El Nino
One of the strongest on record, this time the El Nino has been termed as ‘Godzilla’ by scientists across the world. All weather events suggest that this El Nino is as strong, if not stronger, than the 1997-1998 El Nino. El Nino is an oceanic atmospheric phenomenon wherein waters in the equatorial Pacific warm up abnormally due to the weakening of trade winds.
The warmer the water gets, the stronger the effects of El Nino are likely to be. This November, the sea surface temperature anomaly, which is simply the temperature difference from normal, surpassed the values recorded in 1997. In fact, water in the central Pacific Ocean was also three degrees warmer than normal, the highest ever. According to an associate professor at the University of South Florida, Dr. Jennifer Collins, weather events taking place this year are similar to 1997.
In 1997, the extremely warm water in the Pacific Ocean was concentrated near South America. On the other hand, this year the pool of warm water is in the central Pacific Ocean. She believes that this warm water has helped to aggravate the drought situation in California. In 1997, California witnessed record rains and mudslides. This winter, southern parts of California may see a similar situation. In northern parts of the state, warmer weather conditions may reduce snowfall in the mountains. Typically, Florida sees wetter weather conditions during El Nino years and more severe weather during the winter. Also, the southern jet stream flows across the state, which helps to increase the strength of the storms.
Updated on November 18, 2015 7:00 PM (IST): El Nino growing stronger
One of the strongest on record, this year the El Nino is setting the stage for an unusually wet winter in California. In fact, El Nino will keep strengthening and bring more precipitation than usual over much of the United States. According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center this El Nino is expected to be among the three strongest ones on record since 1950.
El Nino normally does not peak in California till about January, February and March. It’s the time when California experiences several storms bringing mudslides and heavy rainfall. This year around, California and much of US are being lashed by blizzard weather conditions right from November onwards.
Updated on November 2, 2015 1:00 PM (IST): Impact of a strong El Nino on US winter weather
In the mid of October, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. winter forecast. Accordingly, we can expect a cooler and wetter weather in the Southern Tier states. Simultaneously, the Western and Northern Tier states could witness above-average temperatures. This change of weather across the United States could be attributed to a prevailing El Nino, probably the strongest on record. This 'little boy' is expected to influence the position of the Pacific jet stream and thereby, weather and climate patterns. Forecasters at NOAA have also warned about cold-air outbreaks and snowstorms. Moreover, El Nino is not the only influencer in this winter.
The Arctic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation will also play a major role during this winter. This report of NOAA is for the winter season as a whole and does not project specific time and location for the occurrence of storms. In this article, we will precisely explain the temperature and precipitation profile during winter season across the U.S.
Temperature forecast for the United States
During the core winter months, extending from December to February, the southern tier states of the nation will be colder than normal average. Texas and the Gulf Coast states will be the worst affected. On the other hand, a large swath of the western and northern parts of the United States will experience a warmer winter than the previous years. Right from California to the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast will be affected. Temperatures are also likely to be above-average in Alaska and much of Hawaii.
Precipitation forecast for the United States
It has also been predicted that winter 2015-2016 will be wetter than average over much of the southern states. Good precipitation is likely over California, the Desert Southwest, the southern and central plains, much of the Deep South and Gulf Coast. The East Coast may also observe a wetter than average winter this time around. Conversely, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, the northern Plains and some parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest will witness a drier winter. Central and western Alaska and Hawaii will have drier than average winter conditions.
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