As reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the cumulative rainfall deficit which was 11% on 7th of September stagnated for almost ten days (till 6th September) and failed to recover eve once during this time. In fact the deficit has increased and stands at 12% at the moment.
This has already raised concerns amongst weathermen who are keeping an eye on the cumulative rainfall deficit and fear a drought. The most essential condition amongst other weather parameters to declare a drought is that the rainfall deficiency should be 10% or beyond, which is exactly the case here. And with only 10-12 days left for the country to observe some more active monsoon conditions, the recovery does not look possible.
Drought Category
Mild drought: -11% to -15%
Moderate drought: -16% to -20%
Severe drought: -20% and above
However, there is some positive news on this front. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division, there are chances of some good rain in Northeast India from Septmeber 20, which is likely to last for 3-4 days. Amounts of rain in the Northeast are usually erratic and the forecast of good spell in the region could see National cumulative deficit slip to 11%. But on the other hand the Southwest Monsoon has begun its withdrawal from Northwest India due to which the rainfall amounts have become almost nil, adding to the cumulative deficit. Therefore, the spell of rain in Northeast India will play a vital role in affecting the deficit percentage.
Recently, the state government of Haryana was forced to declare the state drought-hit and demand compensation from the Centre. Following suite is Uttar Pradesh government that has declared 44 of its 75 districts as drought hit. Haryana is one of the worst rainfall sub-divisions in the country.
The onset of Monsoon in India had been very poor and the cumulative deficit in June was a whopping 43%. It recovered in July to record 22%, courtesy some good rain during the last two weeks of the month. In August the recovery was even better with the cumulative deficit recording 18%, since then the improvement has been slow.
Picture courtesy: thehindu.com
