Southwest monsoon 2013 is on its way to reach India a week earlier than expected. Skymet is expecting monsoon to reach Kerala coast by 27th of May that is three days earlier than the normal date of 1st of June. It will also be a week sooner than last year when monsoon reached southern parts of Kerala on 5th of June.
According to Mahesh Palawat, head of forecasting at Skymet weather, “ Southwest monsoon 2013 reached the Andaman & Nicobar Islands yesterday, 17th of May that is 3 days before the earlier date of 20th May and six days earlier than last year when it reached the Andaman Island by 23rd of May. Going by its present progress, it could reach Kerala coast by 27th of May, three days before 1st of June.
Skymet at its annual foreshadow on monsoon in Delhi on 17th of April had announced the southwest monsoon to be on time and normal and the advancement seems to be following the same trend as of now. In terms of geographical risk, Skymet suggests that central India will have the least fluctuation with normal rainfall through the JJAS (June, July, August and September) period. There seems to be weakness in east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and northern Madhya Pradesh in June & July; and in Peninsular India in August.
Skymet’s calculations do suggest that there might be a slight dip in precipitation in August. According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, “The slight weakness in the latter part of Monsoon could possibly be attributed to an evolving negative Indian Ocean dipole.” The Indian Ocean dipole is a phenomenon wherein the East Indian Ocean (waters near Indonesia) warms or cools, in turn affecting the Monsoon.
A negative episode is defined as warming and a positive as cooling. Warming is known to weaken the Monsoon, and a positive episode is correlated with strengthening.
