New Delhi, A new research by the climate scientists at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore claims all-India mean temperature rise could reach up to 4.8 degrees by 2080s, if global CO2 emissions continue unabated. The new research also says India would be warmer by 1.7 to 2 degree Celsius as early as the 2030s. The research also indicates 4-5% rise in rainfall by the end of the century.
In terms of long term projections, the study reveals that the mean warming is likely to be between 3.3-4.8 degrees Celsius by the 2080s and the precipitation is expected to increase by 6-14 % towards the end of the century. The north Indian states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, national capital Delhi and Haryana would see higher levels of warming compared to the rest of the country.
The findings are based on robust climate models. In fact, for the first time, averages of 18 climate models have been used to arrive at the findings, which will have a smaller margin of error. These models have managed to predict our past correctly.
Jammu & Kashmir and a few other parts of the Himalayan region will be the worst affected by warming. The region is projected to experience the highest mean warming up to 8 degrees by 2080s. In such circumstances, there will be no snow in Kashmir by the 2080s.
Climate change's catastrophic effect, it seems, is here faster than anyone had expected. A two degrees rise in the average global temperature is considered the danger line beyond which climate change will have intense impacts. Till now, the general belief was that there is enough time to avert what scientists call 'catastrophic' climate change. Perhaps not any more.
